Portugal Situation Report Wednesday 24th August 2022
Good morning – Again the last week has been dominated by rural fires, over 80 % being in the north of the country.
We have mentioned many times previously the main metrological factors that facilitate the starting of fires and their spread, but fires would not exist if it was not for human causes.
The factors previously mentioned are: high temperatures, low relative humidity and the dryness of the vegetation. The last is important as if you drop a lighted cigarette on vegetation (say leaves) that are damp or if the RH is very high, it may not burn the leaves, or if it did it would smoulder, but if you did the same on vegetation that is so brittle with long periods without rain, it will burn or flare up very quickly – which is what is happening right now.
Remember, the longer the period without rain the more likelihood is that vegetation becomes even dryer – hence increasing the risk.
The issue of the Situation of Alert was timely, even though the legislation was not published until Monday the day following its implementation. At Safe Communities we nevertheless published it in statement form on the Saturday, so everyone was aware beforehand.
Through liaison with the ANEPC we ascertained that in the Algarve the risk was extremely high and that on the Sunday there was a red alert in terms of readiness by the civil protection and its agents. This is the highest level that can be issued and only when there is “an extremely dangerous situation”. As such and given the forecast weather conditions, particularly the high winds forecast, we decided to monitor the fire situation at regular intervals overnight on Sunday/Monday. This was prudent as there was a moderate fire in near Salir, Loule at around 0330 hrs that mobilised over a hundred operatives, with complications due to strong winds over 35 km/h and lack of Ariel support as it was night-time. The fire was brought to a conclusion after six hours.
When we read of complications fighting fires the most frequently raised constraint in effective firefighting, is wind speed, gusts and rapidly changing direction. Monitoring these forecasts is therefore important in determining risk and likely fire behaviour.
We thank those of you have joined our Safe Communities northern situation alerts page – we now have over 610 members in just over two weeks. The area is suffering from extreme weather, a point that was made clear to us when Safe Communities visited the IPMA last week. The launch was timely given the large number of fires in the area covered since then and unfortunately more to come. In fact at 1600 hrs yesterday there were 17 rural fires I thank Susan Wright for her work in developing the page and the input we are receiving from professionals in the civil protection field. Creating awareness of fire and other risks is essential, and being prepared even more so. If you have not yet joined the group we welcome you here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/safecommunitiesnorthernportugal
Lastly a reminder that although the Rural Fire Situation of Alert ended at midnight last night, the risk of fires remains high so we must not let our guard down. The restrictions in place along with the fire risks are posted on this page every day so it is easy to follow, supplement by frequent fire prevention and self-protection information to assist you.
Our team wish you a Safe week ahead
News
Brussels estimates Iberian Peninsula with “drier than usual conditions” until November
Brussels, Aug 23, 2022 (Lusa) – The European Commission estimated today that the Iberian Peninsula will have, until November, “drier than usual conditions”, admitting that “the risks may persist” regarding the drought and warning about the lack of storage of water in Portugal.
“It is likely that in the coming months, until November 2022, warmer and drier conditions than usual will occur in the Western Euro-Mediterranean region. In some areas of the Iberian Peninsula, drier than usual conditions are expected for the next three months”, indicates the European Commission’s Joint Research Center in an updated report on the assessment of the drought situation in Europe.
In the document, published today based on data and analysis from the European Drought Observatory, Brussels anticipates that “for most of Europe, after a long string of unusually dry forecasts, they are expected to approach normal conditions between August and October 2022”, which will allow “to alleviate the critical conditions of many European regions and affected sectors”.
But this is not the reality of the Iberian Peninsula, as the Joint Research Center estimates “weather conditions are drier than normal in western Spain and eastern Portugal”, as well as in the entire western Euro-Mediterranean region, where “some risks may persist”.
Regarding Portugal, the document notes that, in the country, “hydroelectric energy stored in water reservoirs is less than half the average of the previous five years”.
“The state of water storage for irrigation is getting worse and all the reservoirs have shrunk. In most cases, water storage is expected to be sufficient to complete the crop irrigation cycle, but around 25% of reservoirs are in significant deficit and may not meet irrigation needs,” warns the community executive.
In addition, “the danger of forest fires is high to extreme in most parts” of Portugal, he adds.
In the report on the drought situation in the European Union (EU) in August, the Joint Research Center indicates that 47% of the community space is in alert conditions, which means that rainfall has been lower than normal and that the humidity of the soil is deficient.
Two suspected of killing teenager in Lisbon gang dispute arrested
The PJ detained two men, aged 29 and 19, suspected of killing a 16-year-old, in a dispute between youth gangs in Lisbon and Loures. They were on the run in France and Switzerland and have already been extradited. Four other suspects had been detained in June.
The death took place on the night of February 19, 2022, in a context of youth violence and conflicts between two gangs in the Lumiar and Fetais areas. Isaac Oliveira, 16, was shot several times while walking on a street in Fetais, Loures. Isaac, nicknamed “Manilson”, was transported to Hospital de Santa Maria in critical condition, but eventually died.
The shots were fired from the interior of a moving van, with several youths inside. It appears that this was a planned assassination and retaliation for previous conflicts, especially a stabbing that took place a week earlier.
Investigations carried out by the PJ made it possible to identify the six individuals suspected of the homicide. In June, four of them, aged between 17 and 26, were arrested. The other two had fled the country shortly after the crime.
The PJ managed to locate them in Switzerland and France and, within the framework of international cooperation and with the cooperation of the authorities of both countries, they were both arrested and extradited in recent weeks.
The defendants, aged 29 and 19, were both presented for the first judicial interrogation, having been subject to the coercive measure of preventive detention
Euro loses gas. Single currency drops to two-decade lows on Russian pressure
The three-day stop of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline imposed by Russia for “maintenance” is putting pressure on the euro against the dollar. Single currency hits lowest value in two decades
The three-day stop of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline imposed by Russia for “maintenance”, but which is being interpreted by Europe as blackmail from Moscow on the threshold of a winter when energy will be scarce, is putting pressure on the euro against to the dollar to such an extent that the single currency fell to two-decade lows on Tuesday, August 23.
According to Reuters, the single currency reached US$0.9909 on Tuesday morning, a value last reached in late 2002.
Europe is trying to reduce dependence on Russian gas, hitherto abundant and cheap, after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. Without having considered alternatives in recent years, the economies of Central Europe, especially the European economic “engine”, Germany, are now at the mercy of the very high gas prices practiced in international markets, and with no prospects of slowing down.
In this race to secure reserves for the winter, with Europe and Asia competing to buy what little gas there is on the market, the biggest loser is the German industry. Deprived of cheap energy, it is having great difficulties in adapting to these new production conditions, which will have an impact on the country’s economic growth. The German central bank, the Bundesbank, has already confirmed that the pessimism is justified.
Faced with all-time record inflation rates in developed economies fueled by rising energy prices and the breakdown of supply chains – and some links, which have broken due to the covid-19 pandemic, are unlikely to be restored – central banks global markets are tightening their monetary policy for the first time in several years, raising interest rates.
Azores IPMA places seven islands under heavy rain yellow level warning
Angra do Heroísmo, Azores, Aug 23, 2022 (Lusa) – The Portuguese Institute of the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has placed seven islands in the Azores (western and central groups) under yellow warning, between today and Wednesday, due to the forecast of sometimes heavy precipitation.
In a press release, the IPMA adds that, on the islands of the western group (Flores and Corvo) “rainfall is sometimes expected”, which can “be accompanied by thunderstorms”, from 00:00 to 18:00 local time (19:00 in Lisbon) today.
On the islands of the central group (Terceira, Graciosa, São Jorge, Pico and Faial), the same notice takes place between 00:00 and 21:00 on Wednesday.
The yellow warning (the least serious of a scale of three) is issued by the IPMA whenever there is a risk situation for certain activities depending on the weather situation.
At the IPMA we learned about various patterns that impact our daily weather, such as the position of the predominant high pressure system near the Azores. How this system moves influences the chance of rain and causes the variation in temperature throughout the Iberian Peninsula. Another issue of interest was the warming of sea water and how this can impact on weather conditions.
“We will have in September, as a rule, warmer weather than in previous Septembers. Between 50% and 60% hotter and between 40% and 50% drier”, said José Luís Carneiro, reiterating that “this says everything about the added risks that we will have to face” until the end of the summer.
“The proposal that the PJ has is that in a couple of years we can reach 1,800 inspectors and we are very legitimately expectant, positively expectant, that this plan will meet our desire”, said the national director of the Judiciary Police (PJ). ), Luís Neves, to journalists, at the end of the inauguration of two new directors, which took place at the headquarters of this police in Lisbon.
We therefore need to anticipate, plan ahead, be prepared and take initiatives to help address the threat. As a result on 6th August 2022 the association launched a Facebook group: “Safe Communities Northern Portugal Situation Alerts”.
“The Covid-19 crisis has had far-reaching impacts on the economy, with air transport in particular being hit hard by a decline in passenger numbers, [whereby] airlines and associated companies have reduced the number of their employees in compliance, with younger workers particularly affected”, notes Eurostat.
How many more fires there will be this summer will depend on the number and duration of heatwaves. These occur when the maximum remains five degrees above average for at least six consecutive days. Experts predict in August: temperatures above normal in the interior and slightly below average on the coast. The occurrence of a heat wave as extreme as the one in July seems, at least for now, unlikely, but we must be prepared both in terms of fire preparedness and the effects on health and adopt measures accordingly.
“According to the forecasts of the IVV, resulting from the consultation made with the representative regional entities, wine production in Portugal is expected to fall by around 9% compared to the previous harvest (characterized by an abnormally high production) ,” he said in a statement .