Study reveals that more than 2.3 million people in Europe could die due to heat by the end of the century
An increase in global average temperature of between 3 and 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century would lead to the death of 2.3 million people in Europe due to heat, reveals a study in the journal Nature Medicine.
The study published on Monday, which modeled the impact of rising global average temperatures on 854 urban areas in 30 European countries, reveals that some of the most affected cities would be Spanish cities such as Barcelona, Madrid and Valencia.
The researchers considered three temperature scenarios: one in which the Paris Agreement to combat climate change is met and global temperatures do not rise more than 2 degrees by the end of the century; another in which they rise between 2 and 3 degrees; and a third, of between 3 and 4 degrees of increase by the end of the century, which is where we are heading according to the current emissions trajectory.
“We took into account the variables that relate temperature and mortality over the last 20 years and analysed them with 19 climate models in the three temperature scenarios mentioned,” one of the authors, Veronika Huber, a biologist and specialist in environmental epidemiology at the Doñana Biological Station (EBD-CSIC), explained to the EFE agency.
In the worst-case scenario, with an increase in global average temperature of around 4 degrees by the end of the century, Barcelona (north eastern Spain) would be the European city with the most excess deaths associated with high temperatures by the end of the century: 246,082, the researchers calculate.
After Rome and Naples, Madrid ranks fourth among the most affected cities, with 129,716 additional heat-related deaths by the end of the century, and Valencia seventh, with 67,519. In fifth and sixth place are Milan and Athens, respectively.
According to previous studies, Europe has 10 cold-related deaths for every 1 heat-related death, but climate change is upsetting this balance, causing heat-related mortality to increase despite a possible decline in cold-related deaths.
“Even if cold deaths were to decrease if global temperatures were to rise, the balance would still be very negative, because additional heat-related deaths would increase dramatically and exceed two million,” adds Huber.
The good news is that researchers found that in the most optimistic scenario, in which emissions are reduced and the Paris Agreement is implemented, limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 degrees by the end of the century, 70% of deaths from high temperatures could be avoided.
SETH BORENSTEIN, Associated Press