The Overseas Situation Report Tuesday 14 December 2021

by Mike Evans

“In the midst of winter, I found there was, within me, an invincible summer” 

– Albert Camus

In this report we are looking at what has happened over the past week in Germany with regards to the emergence of the new Omicron Strain of the Covid 19 virus and look at one industry which is thriving in the Netherlands during the pandemic, and we look at the situation in Canada and news of a upsurge in infections and what they are doing to combat the new variant.

First to Germany, Germany is facing a massive fourth COVID-19 wave even though two-thirds of its population is vaccinated. Germany counted a staggering 50,196 new COVID-19 infections last Thursday, its highest count since the pandemic began. It is the first time the country has been battling a major wave despite a majority of its population being doubly vaccinated. About 67% of people in Germany are fully vaccinated against COVID-19. But experts have warned from the beginning of the rollout that the number is not high enough to keep the virus under control.

“Our vaccination rate is still under 75% of the German population,” said Dr. Christine Falk, president of the German Society for Immunology. “Combined with the lack of contact restrictions, this is allowing the virus to spread almost exclusively among the unvaccinated.”

According to the Robert Koch Institute, the incidence of hospitalizations for unvaccinated COVID-19 patients between 18 and 59 is currently about four times higher than for vaccinated ones. For patients over 60, it’s about six times higher. While the jabs significantly lower the risk of serious illness and death, they don’t fully protect against infection. With soaring case numbers, the risk of getting COVID-19 also rises for vaccinated people.

“The growing numbers are also increasing the pressure on vaccinated people, but the portion of breakthrough infections is miniscule,” Dr. Falk says. The vaccinated who could face a higher risk, she says, are the older ones with weaker immune systems, especially if some time has passed since their second shot. The country is now administering booster shots to people who were fully immunized more than six months ago.

Compared to early 2021, Germany has lax distancing measures in place during this fourth wave.  About a year ago, the government introduced rules that would eventually develop into a hard lockdown: All nonessential businesses were closed and a night-time curfew was imposed temporarily. There were varying restrictions about how many households could meet.  In combination with the vaccine rollout, these measures caused Germany’s incidence to drop in the spring. Nowadays, people in Germany face fewer rigid rules: They have to wear medical, so-called FFP-2 masks on public transport and in stores, and most venues will only let them in if they are vaccinated, have recovered from COVID-19 or were tested.

This year Delta, a more contagious mutation of the coronavirus, has become the predominant variant in Germany and much of the world. It is more than twice as contagious as previous variants, according to the CDC. It might also cause unvaccinated people to experience worse symptoms. Another factor fuelling Germany’s fourth wave is that winter is just around the corner. “The delta variant virus loves the cold. We spend more time indoors which makes it easier to spread the virus,” said Dr. Falk.

Other European countries like Austria, the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing soaring infection incidences as these factors come together.  Dr. Falk pleads for people to be smart during this fourth wave and consistently wear masks and to take antigen tests as soon as symptoms appear. But most of all, she encourages the unvaccinated to get their shots.

“If we don’t increase the vaccination rate urgently, it will become difficult to control the situation,” she said. “The vaccines are the best thing that could’ve happened to us, but there are still too many people refusing them.”

Meanwhile across the border from Germany in the Netherlands, one side of their economy which is booming is the Coffeeshops. Since 1976, the Netherlands has tolerated the smoking of cannabis and hashish, weed and other products which can be bought at coffee shops. The Hague, the seat of the Dutch government, has around 30 shops.  At the No Limit Coffeeshop in The Hague the customers stream in and out endlessly, as the cannabis trade booms despite Covid restrictions. Whether it is to calm their anxiety or ease the boredom of the past two years, many buyers say their consumption has increased during the pandemic.

“Covid has been good for us,” smiles Carmelita, the boss of No Limit who asked for her full name not to be published. Before coronavirus, the shop had 300 to 350 customers a day, she says. “Now it is 500. The only profession which is happy with Covid is coffeeshops.”

When the Netherlands first locked down in March 2020 there were scenes of “weed panic”, with long queues outside coffeeshops, the Dutch term for cannabis cafes.

But while access to bars, restaurants and nightclubs has been sharply limited, coffeeshops have been able to stay open, mostly for takeaway. “Before, they were going to the disco. But now everything is closed, so now they stay home, where they smoke more,” says Carmelita, adding that her clientele includes “many housewives, who buy weed to sleep well.”

“There’s nothing to do in town, so you just smoke joints” with friends, says Sophia Dokter, 18, who used to smoke two or three times a week, but now says it’s six or seven times.

A survey by Trimbos, a research institute on mental health and addictions, found that 90 percent of Dutch cannabis users were smoking as much or more since the start of the pandemic. Three-quarters were smoking every day.

“So, it is not about people wanting to get high, to escape. It is more a way to cope with everyday anxiety,” says Stephen Snelders, a historian of drug use. Similar changes in the use of tobacco and opium were seen in historic plague outbreaks in the Netherlands, he said.

During the stress of a pandemic, “a little brain holiday is always nice,” agrees Gerard Smit, who runs the Cremers coffeeshop in The Hague. “There’s nothing wrong with having one (a joint) while you watch Netflix.”

However, Covid restrictions have emptied many of the coffeeshops’ famed, fume-filled smoking rooms. “We like each other, but we don’t give each other joints anymore,” says Smit. Takeaway sales are booming though. Trade is busy at Waterworld, another coffeeshop in the city. Different types of weed with evocative names like “fruti punch”, “gelato” or “amnesia haze” are on display in large plastic containers.

“Careful, only three people at a time inside!” says Mesut Erdoğan, a cashier. A sign on the door says that “To stop the spread of the Covid-19 virus, the smoking area is closed until further notice. “Nobody is coming inside anymore” to smoke, says boss Abdoel Sanhaji, who is also president of the Alliance of The Hague Coffeeshops.

He says he respects the coronavirus rules but is hoping for a change in the law when the pandemic is over. In a somewhat stoner-esque paradox, the consumption and sale of cannabis have been decriminalised in the Netherlands, but the rest of the supply chain remains illegal.

The weed — which the coffeeshops sell by the kilo every day, and for which they pay tax to the Dutch treasury — is effectively still forbidden in the Netherlands, as is its cultivation. “We are illegal for nearly everything, except for paying taxes,” jokes Carmelita. “Covid will have no impact on our drug policies,” says John‑Peter Kools of the Trimbos institute. “Even Covid, with its 18 months of life, is nothing compared to 30 years of a heated debate.”

And finally, across the Atlantic to Canada, where according to New modelling released last Friday by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) suggests the number of COVID-19 cases could increase sharply in the coming weeks as the country grapples with another wave of delta infections and the highly transmissible Omicron variant.

While there is a lot of uncertainty about how many cases might be reported, an increase from the current level of over 3,300 cases a day is likely, PHAC said, because Canada is experiencing a “gradual but steady increase” in infections.

The national “rT” — the metric that tracks the average number of people one infected person subsequently will infect — is now over one. That means the pandemic is again in growth mode.

Pointing to early findings from South Africa, where Omicron was first identified and case counts have skyrocketed, PHAC said cases could quadruple to 12,000 a day in January if “Omicron successfully establishes” and the current levels of transmission are maintained.

Omicron’s “greater transmissibility” and the potential for “reduced protection from prior infection/vaccination” could drive this resurgence, PHAC said. The effectiveness of the current slate of COVID-19 vaccines against Omicron is still under review. As of December 9, there have been 87 confirmed cases of Omicron reported in seven Canadian jurisdictions. To date, all reported cases of Omicron in Canada have been asymptomatic or mild.

Even without Omicron circulating widely, PHAC modelling suggests Canada could still be dealing with another wave of Delta cases in the new year.

If the current level of transmission is maintained, cases stand to double to between 6,000 and 7,000 a day in January. If transmission levels increase, a Delta-driven wave of roughly 12,000 cases a day is also possible, PHAC said.

While the modelling is concerning, Dr. Howard Njoo, Canada’s deputy chief public health officer, said people shouldn’t go into “panic mode.”

“We should all respect the virus. It’s a formidable foe and it’s obviously evolving as we fight against it,” he said. “We need to respect it but not be panicked or scared. We have a great number of tools now and we know a lot more about the virus. We know vaccines protect against serious illness.

While the new strain is now multiplying rapidly across the world, we should all remember that this strain does seem to be affecting people in a much milder way than the previous strains so we can all be hopeful that this trend continues as we draw ever closer to the Christmas holidays where traditionally families and friends mix closely together.

Until the next time Stay Safe.

Total Cases Worldwide – 270,533,063

Total Deaths Worldwide – 5,324,691

Total Recovered Worldwide – 243,317,805

Total Active Cases Worldwide – 21,890,567 (8.1 % of the total cases) 

Total Closed Cases Worldwide – 248,642,496

Information and Resources:

https://www.worldometer.info/coronavirus/

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest

https://www.france24.com/en

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-infections-rising-federal-modelling-1.6281026

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