The Overseas Situation Report Friday 15 October 2021
by Mike Evans
“Success is achieved and maintained by those who try and keep trying.”
– W. Clement Stone
In the past week there has been a big increase in new infections across many countries in Europe. This is in contrast to the rest of the world with the exception of Oceania where there has also been a small increase. In this report we are looking at where the main increases have come from and what is happening in the area to combat this increase.
According to Worldometer.info the trend over the past week worldwide has seen a drop in new cases by 4%. The biggest percentage fall has been in Africa,(27%) and South America,(25%). In North America there has been a drop of 17% and a 10% drop in Asia, compared to the previous week.
However, in Europe the situation is very different. With over 1 million of the 2.8 million cases worldwide there has been some significant jumps in new cases detected over the past week.
The UK and Russia lead the table with almost 470,000 cases of the 1 million in the continent. The UK saw a 14% increase to 278,374 new cases and Russia saw 199,121 new cases, also an increase of 14%. Across Europe according to the data from Worldometer 30 out of the 47 countries listed saw an increase in new cases in the past 7 days.
Another disturbing statistic is that deaths from Covid 19 also rose by 13% across the region in the past week. Russia and the UK were again the two countries with the highest number of deaths attributed to the pandemic.
Let’s look closer at a few of these countries to see what may be the cause of this increase in both cases and deaths.
In the UK the number of new cases is increasing on a daily basis. On wednesday, the UK reported 42,776 new infections which is the highest daily number since the 21st July.
The figures are 11 per cent higher than Tuesday’s daily total of 38,520. The number of cases reported in the past seven days is 12 percent higher than the previous week. It takes Britain’s seven-day rolling Covid infection rate to 372.6 cases per 100,000, which is among the highest in Europe.
Trafford in Greater Manchester continues to have the highest rate in the UK, with 2,006 new cases in the seven days to October 9, the equivalent of 844.4 per 100,000 people. Looking at the infection rate more closely, figures released on Tuesday showed that 73 percent of local authority areas have seen a week-on-week rise in rates while 27 per cent have seen a fall.
Meanwhile the Government said a further 136 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the UK total to 138,080.
Separate figures published by the Office for National Statistics show there have been 163,000 deaths registered in the UK where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.
While cases appear to be steadily increasing, the impact on the nation’s health appears to be more stable. Daily Covid-19 hospital admissions have been running reasonably flat in the 700s since the middle of September, having fallen from around 1,000 at the start of the month. The latest daily figures show 754 patients were admitted to hospital with coronavirus on Saturday.
Russia hit another record of daily coronavirus deaths Tuesday as the country struggled with a rapid surge of infections and lagging vaccination rates, but authorities have been adamant that there would be no new national lockdown. The government coronavirus task force reported 973 coronavirus deaths, the highest daily toll since the start of the pandemic. Russia has repeatedly hit record daily death tolls this month, and daily infections also have been hovering near all-time highs, with 28,190 new cases reported Tuesday.
Despite the rapidly mounting toll, the Kremlin has ruled out a nationwide lockdown, delegating the power to make decisions on toughening coronavirus restrictions to regional authorities.The soaring infections has raised the pressure on Russia’s health care system, with hospitals filling up quickly. Speaking at a Cabinet meeting Tuesday, Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said 11% of Russia’s 235,000 hospitalized COVID-19 patients are in serious or critical condition.
Overall, Russia’s coronavirus task force has registered over 7.8 million confirmed cases and 218,345 deaths — the highest death toll in Europe. Yet the state statistics agency Rosstat, which also counts deaths where the virus wasn’t considered the main cause, has reported a much higher total — about 418,000 deaths of people with COVID-19. If that higher number is used, Russia would be the fourth hardest-hit nation in the world during the pandemic, after the United States, Brazil and India. Even the lower mortality figure only shifts Russia down to fifth place, after Mexico. The Russian government has blamed the sharp rise in infections and deaths that began last month on a slow vaccination rate. Only 47.8 million Russians, or almost 33% of its nearly 146 million people, have received at least one shot of a coronavirus vaccine, and 42.4 million, about 29%, were fully vaccinated, the government said Friday.
Speaking at a meeting with newly-elected Russian lawmakers, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized on Tuesday the importance of broad vaccination and urged lawmakers to help encourage the population to get the shots.
“We must patiently and persistently work with people and explain all the advantages of prophylactics against that dangerous disease,” Putin said, noting that the population must be persuaded to get the shots without resorting to administrative pressure. Amid a quick tide of infections, some Russian regions have restricted attendance at large public events and limited access to theaters, restaurants and other places to people who have been vaccinated, recently recovered from COVID-19 or tested negative in the previous 72 hours.
But life remains largely normal in Moscow, St. Petersburg and many other Russian cities, with businesses operating as usual and mask mandates loosely enforced. In Moscow, the authorities expanded free coronavirus tests in shopping malls, hoping it would help stem contagion.
Across the rest of Europe, many of the countries which had seen a drop in new cases are now seeing a resurgence of the virus. The Eastern countries of the continent seem to be those where the upsurge in infections is starting to happen again. Ukraine, and Romania, have the next highest number of new cases in the region while Germany and Serbia are also seeing increases compared to the previous week. With regards to deaths from Covid 19 all four of these countries have seen significant increases in the past week.
In Germany, whilst the number of infections remains stable they are bringing in a number of new rules to combat the virus. The Health authorities are concerned that among people over the age of 60, 3 million remain unvaccinated. Pressure to change that is mounting, yet falling just short of implementing an actual vaccine requirement. Much of public life in Germany now requires proof of test, vaccination or recovery from COVID-19. In some places, only the latter two will do.
As of Monday, the cost of rapid antigen tests is no longer covered by the state. That means unvaccinated people may be out €10 to €25 ($11 to $29) every time they want to join public life, for example to go a restaurant or get a haircut. Starting November 1, unvaccinated people will not receive compensation for lost pay if coronavirus measures force them to quarantine.The loss of earnings for all citizens who have to quarantine and cannot work because of a suspected or actual coronavirus infection has, until now, been covered by the state.
Despite fears over a potential spike in COVID-19, Health Minister Jens Spahn has defended the move. “Why should others pay for the fact that someone has decided not to be vaccinated?” he said.
He did stress, however, that it is still the right of every citizen to choose not to get vaccinated. His center-right Christian Democrat party (CDU) has staunchly opposed compulsory vaccinations across the board. “It is not about pressure, it is about fairness,” said Spahn.
At least 68% of people in Germany have received at least one shot, according to the Health Ministry, and at least 85% of those over 60 are fully vaccinated. The figures could be higher, based on a recent analysis by the Robert Koch Institute for public health (RKI). The uncertainty is due, among other things, to some doctors not registering all vaccinations. To many Germans, it may feel like the country is through the worst of the pandemic. Just 42% of those polled in a recent survey said they worry about rising infections. In the summer, that figure was at 62%.
Based on recent statistics, it appears Germany has been able to avoid dramatic developments in its fourth wave of the pandemic, which began in mid-August. The seven-day incidence rate has kept steady for the last several weeks at around 60 people per 100,000 — which is higher than the same point one year ago.Yet that is only part of the picture. Since late summer, German health officials have also been judging the situation based on the hospitalization rate, which better reflects serious cases and the burden on the health care system. At 1.6 per 100,000 people, COVID-19 hospitalizations are in the green. The number of those patients occupying intensive care beds is also low.
There are greater concerns at the local level, such as the four dozen cities or municipalities with incidence rates of at least 100, and in some cases 200. In the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany’s most populous state, 280 COVID-19 patients are in the hospital, half of them on ventilators. A large majority of the seriously ill are unvaccinated people.
The seasons are changing and as Germany approaches winter, social life is moving inside. This increases the risk of infections, which was the case during Germany’s second wave last autumn and winter. Spahn has warned that the vaccination rate is insufficient to guarantee that this won’t happen again.”We best not go too quickly, but step-by-step. So we don’t have to take a step backward,” he said. Epidemiologists like Lange have said that unlike in the United Kingdom, people in Germany should not expect “freedom day,” when all restrictions are lifted, anytime soon.
“Whether you can declare one is a political question. Whether you can stick to it is an epidemiological one,” she stated. Rules will be necessary, she added, if infections rise and again burden the system.
It is obvious that the pandemic is not over and we must all be careful in how we conduct our daily lives. In the meantime take Care and Stay Safe.
Total Cases Worldwide – 240,085,681
Total Deaths Worldwide – 4,892,166
Total Recovered Worldwide – 217,402,526
Total Active Cases Worldwide – 17,790,989 (7.4 % of the total cases)
Total Closed Cases Worldwide – 222,294,692
https://www.worldometer.info/coronavirus/
Other Resourcs:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#countries