Portugal Situation Report, Wednesday 17th March 2021
Introduction
It is all about Risk
Good morning. Today’s introduction is all about risk – in this case in three areas. The first of these is the decision by Portugal to what is now described (by the vaccination co-ordinator), as “a pause” for a short while in the administering of the AstraZeneca vaccine, following reports of 37 cases of severe blood clots in people overseas, discovered sometime after they had received the vaccine. This was taken as a precautionary measure and follows similar moves in 12 other countries. AstraZeneca said there have been 37 reports of blood clots out of more than 17 million people vaccinated in the 27-country EU and Britain. If correct, the chances of you having a blood clot are one in every 629,620. The drug maker said there is no evidence the vaccine carries an increased risk of clots.
As of the time of reporting, no connection between the two has been established and in fact evidence so far is that the incidence of clots is much lower than would be expected to occur naturally in a general population of this size.
Nevertheless, there has been considerable worry on social media, questioning why the pause/suspension is needed if the risks are so low and the impact this may have on the rollout, at a time when all efforts need to be made to 
accelerate the process. Naturally there are many thinking that this is a political decision. However, if Portugal had continued and the rest of Europe had not I guess there would be many questioning if Portugal was putting people at risk.
The Prime Minister has explained the importance of “people understanding what is happening”: “the suspensions are only provisional and even today [Tuesday] the World Health Organization is discussing the known data, the European Medicines Agency will pronounce until the end of the week. It makes sense to suspend for three or four days so that the process can continue later”.
This is why understanding risk is important and even if a connection was established, just 37 cases out of 17 million people vaccinated, it means that the risk is far outweighed by the far higher risk of contracting Covid-19 by not being vaccinated. It is important to be guided by science not social media hysteria.
Another topic of risk this time in the rate of transmission Rt. We should not have Rt above 1, although the likelihood is that this is impossible to achieve permanently. At some point we will have few cases resulting in this threshold being exceeded. So the objective is clear: we must do everything to maintain a low incidence. To do this we cannot let our guard down and we must have an accurate “perception of risk” at all times especially what actions increase risk and those that mitigate risk.
Things normally start to go wrong when this perception is lost. It is very important to be aware of the risks and that there will be consequences if our behaviour changes in a way that is not conducive to minimizing risk – social gatherings, for instance.
In the de-confinement plan, presented on Thursday by the Prime Minister, the relaxation of measures in the reopening on April 5th and 19th and on May 3rd will be reviewed, whenever Portugal exceeds “120 new cases per day per 100 thousand inhabitants in 14 days” or whenever the transmissibility index (Rt) of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, exceeds 1. Latest figures show a case rate of 90 per 100,000 and an Rt of 0.79.
The last risk area is fire risk. This is the time of year when many people in rural areas will be undertaking controlled burns of heaped and piled rubbish and, mainly farmers, are undertaking the controlled burning of scrub land.
We say “controlled” because it is a fact that, in a typical year, over half of such burns became “out of control” and lead to a fire where firefighters and other emergency services are deployed.
As the weather becomes dryer and warmer (as it is today) the risk increases, so it is important to be aware of what regulations are in place and how to register a burn or seek authorisation, as the case maybe. If these are not followed there are heavy fines.
Lastly, we have to once again remind a few people concerning the use of our Facebook Page. The page is there to provide the best sourced information in the area of safety and security to help people enjoy quality of life, especially in these difficult times. Although there are many challenges we will come through these. The last thing anyone needs is to be confronted with negativity which will not make people feel any better.
We therefore request people to read the “About Us” section on the use of our Facebook page, particularly with regards to unsourced comments and claims, personal argument, fake news and unrelated provocative comments, which detract from the topic and creates more work for us as ‘administrators’. We will remove these in the interests of the majority of readers, who are seeking accurate information and informed content. If the small minority wish to engage in personal argument there are Facebook groups available more suited for this purpose. “Words do Matter” so please bear in mind the feelings of others when commenting.
Finally, a reminder that the new State of Emergency law is now in effect and we have consolidated the measures and the de-confinement plan into a single page on our website which can be downloaded here. We hope you find this useful.
Finally a Happy St Patrick’s Day – Stay Safe
Headlines
“I’m with you, I also got the AstraZeneca vaccine. I look forward to the second dose”: Costa asks for calm
“I am with you, I also took the first dose of the vaccine. I look forward to the second. ” That was how António Costa ended a short statement to journalists this Tuesday in Porto. At issue is the temporary suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine, announced less than 24 hours ago. The Prime Minister appealed for calm, recalling that he himself had been vaccinated with the therapy from the British pharmaceutical company.
“All the scientific evidence shows that the vaccine is safe and effective. I say this with the peace of mind that I am being vaccinated with the AstraZeneca vaccine. I already took my first dose and I am waiting for the second one in May”, he started by saying. “I hope that everything will be clarified and my conviction is that everything will be clarified. The available scientific information shows this and the Governments, including ours, have taken a preventive decision”, he continued.
The Prime Minister considered it important that “people understand what is happening”: “the suspensions are only provisional and even today [Tuesday] the World Health Organization is discussing the known data, the European Medicines Agency will pronounce until the end of the week”. It is based on this calendar that António Costa says he believes that by the end of the week there should be a final decision.
“It makes sense to suspend for three or four days so that the process can continue later”, he defended, appealing to calm from those who have already been vaccinated and the patience of those who now have the vaccination process delayed for a few weeks.
Covid-19 DGS
DGS reported yesterday the latest figures concerning Covid-19 with continuing downward trends namely:
Confirmed Cases: 814.897 (+ 384 / + 0.05 %)
Number of admitted: 955 (-41 /-4.12 %)
Number of ICU admitted: 213 (-18 /-7.79 %)
Deaths: 16.707 (+ 13 / + 0.08 %)
Recovered: 762.961 (+ 1173 / + 0.15 %)
Active cases: 35,229 (- 802 / -2.2%)
This is analysed as:
– Second lowest deaths since 17th October; third lowest new cases since 1st September; recovered 3 times new cases and for 44 consecutive days, the number of recovered patients exceeds that of new infections.
There are also the lowest number in hospital since 13th October and 5832 less compared to number in hospital 1st Feb; lowest in ICU since 23rd October 2020 a decreased by 75.3% since 1st February’ Lastly the number of active cases lowest since 14th October, decreasing for 40 consecutive days and over 146,394 since 31st January
Despite all this good news it is important not to let our guard down at this crucial time. Those in hospital and ICU remain high. This means complying with the rules in place, – wearing face masks, social distancing, hygiene and no social gatherings.
Health
Covid-19. New pandemic monitoring bulletin to be published every Friday.
The Directorate-General for Health (DGS), in collaboration with the National Institute of Health Doctor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), will start to publish a weekly monitoring report on the evolution of Covid-19 every Friday. According to DGS, this bulletin “will include the indicators described in the Red Lines document”, prepared by the group of experts and which lists a series of parameters considered essential to monitor the evolution of the pandemic in Portugal.
DGS confirms that these indicators will be: the incidence at 14 days, the national R (t) and by region, the number of patients in Intensive Care Units at national level, the proportion of national positivity (that is, the percentage of results positive in the total of tests performed), the proportion of case isolation and tracking of contacts by region, and also the proportion of virus variants considered most worrying (also by region).
Of these indicators, the incidence, the Rt and the number of beds in intensive care were considered by the experts to be the three main parameters.
In addition to this new report, the risk matrix that the Prime Minister presented last Thursday will be released daily, “with the situation report of Covid-19, which will be updated on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, when updating the R (t) ”, details the DGS.
In the document ‘on the red lines’, presented at the last meeting at Infarmed and meanwhile publicly released, the group of experts argued that the proposed indicators should be “widely publicized”, as read in the report. “The epidemiological situation and the indicators mentioned here must be accompanied by the periodic issuance of a risk assessment document for qualitative interpretation and also be able to feed the correct risk communication by the authorities and political actors”.
Until now, Rt was only released once a week by INSA (on Friday). However, the indicator was already calculated every two days, although it was only released internally.
Deaths from Covid-19
Covid-19 / One year: More than half of all deaths in Portugal have occurred since January.
The number of deaths from Covid-19 in Portugal from the beginning of the year to 10 March amounts to 9,642, which corresponds to 58% of the total fatalities since the beginning of the pandemic, according to data officers.
In 2020, 6,993 deaths were recorded from Covid-19, but the 5,805 deaths in January – the most tragic month in Portugal so far – added to 3,558 fatalities in February and 279 in the first 10 days of March, mean that 2021 account for more than half of the total for this period (16,635).
The data was requested by Lusa to the Directorate-General for Health (DGS), on the day that marks the first year of the first death in Portugal caused by the new coronavirus, on March 16th, 2020.
At the same time, the entity led by Graça Freitas specified that, since the beginning of the pandemic up until the 12th of March, there were 4,611 accumulated deaths in Portugal by Covid-19 of people residing in homes (deaths occurring within homes or in hospitals), of which 802 in the North, 1,263 in the Centre, 1,909 in Lisbon and the Tagus Valley, 526 in the Alentejo and 111 in the Algarve.
Covid-19: 40,000 workers from 4,000 day care centres will be tested this week.
Azambuja, Lisbon, 16th March 2021 (Lusa) – About 40,000 workers from 4,000 day care centres across the country are going to be tested at Covid-19 this week, in a process whose start was announced today in Azambuja (Lisbon) by the Minister of Labour, Solidarity and Social Security.
Ana Mendes Godinho watched the testing of some of the employees of the Centro Social Paroquial da Azambuja, which reopened on Monday, within the scope of the first measures of deflation, the valences of day care, pre-school and Leisure Activities (ATL).
According to the minister, the testing of professionals who work in day care centres and as nannies aims, in addition to preventing contagion with the new coronavirus, to give “confidence and also tranquillity” in the resumption of teaching activities after almost two months of confinement due to the rapid growth of cases SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Stressing the satisfaction she saw in the children, educators and assistants in this matter, Ana Mendes Godinho said that it is necessary to thank and value “all the people who have not stopped at the service of others”, as well as the “great capacity” of the social sector and its employees, who “have always been on the ground, on the front line, working for children and the elderly”.
The minister stressed that day care testing comes in addition to the integrated monitoring and prevention program in homes, in an effort to reach the various dimensions of social responses.
Vaccines
Brussels, 16th March 2021 (Lusa) – The European Commission announced today that it has reached an agreement with BioNTech-Pfizer for the early delivery of 10 million doses of the Covid-19 vaccine, which will thus be available as early as the second quarter.
In a statement released in Brussels, the community executive explains that these 10 million doses are part of the batch of 100 million doses contemplated in the second contract with BioNTech-Pfizer, whose delivery was scheduled for the third and fourth quarters of 2021.
“I know how critical the second quarter is for the development of vaccination strategies in the Member States. These 10 million advance doses raise the total doses of the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine in the second quarter to 200 million. This is excellent news, as it gives the Member States room for manoeuvre and possibly compensates for gaps in deliveries ”of other vaccines, commented Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
This anticipation of the delivery of 10 million vaccines for the months of April, May and June has yet to be approved by the Member States.
The announcement of the agreement between the European Commission and the German pharmaceutical company BioNTech and its North American partner Pfizer takes place one day after several Member States, including Portugal, decided to suspend the administration of the AstraZeneca vaccine as a “precaution”, due to the formation of blood clots in some of the vaccines.
Currently, there are four vaccines against Covid-19 approved by the European Medicines Agency (EMA): BioNTech-Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca and Janssen (Johnson & Johnson group).
Johnson & Johnson signs agreement to produce vaccine in Germany
The American company Johnson & Johnson and the German IDT Biologika today closed an agreement for the production of vaccines in Germany, a protocol welcomed by the German government at a time when Europe faces delays in the delivery of these drugs.
The agreement, which will allow Johnson & Johnson to use “for three months” the facilities on the German territory of the IDT Biologika laboratory for “bottling and packaging”, will “increase the reliability of deliveries” of the vaccine in the European Union (EU), said the German Economy Minister, Peter Altmaier, in reaction to the protocol.
The American group Johnson & Johnson, through the European subsidiary Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, developed a vaccine against the Covid-19 disease in a single dose, which received, last week, the ‘green light’ from the competent European authorities to begin distribution and use in the community space.
It is the fourth vaccine against Covid-19 authorized in the EU.
Suspension of AstraZeneca vaccine.
The Director-General of Health yesterday appealed for those who have received the AstraZeneca vaccine to remain calm and guaranteed that no adverse reactions like those identified in other countries have been reported in Portugal.
“If you have been vaccinated, stay calm. These reactions are extremely rare and in our country no phenomena similar to those found in other countries have been reported”, said Graça Freitas, in a joint press conference with the National Medicines Authority (Infarmed) and the vaccination plan task force.
According to the Head of the Directorate-General for Health (DGS), “although the adverse reactions mentioned are extremely serious, they are also extremely rare”, and the cause and effect between this vaccine and blood clots in other countries has not been identified.
“Although the causal link between the vaccine and these reactions has not been identified, on the precautionary principle it was decided to pause vaccination with the AstraZeneca vaccine,” he said.
Addressing people who have already received the AstraZeneca vaccine in Portugal, Graça Freitas also called for them to remain alert to symptoms of feeling unwell for a few days.
“Above all, if this bad feeling is accompanied by bruising or skin haemorrhages, do not hesitate and consult a doctor”, stressed Graça Freitas, while ensuring that the Ministry of Health and Infarmed “maintain all confidence in vaccination against Covid-19” and called on everyone to continue vaccinating according to the planned schedule.
According to Graça Freitas, the vaccines of this pharmaceutical company that Portugal has already received are “stored in conditions and are not wasted”, waiting for the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to inform if it can be administered “with the safety profile”, comparing the benefits with the risks.
Covid-19. Vaccination coordinator says delay is recoverable in “five or six days”.
Vice Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo says that it is up to the authorities to explain the change, in just 24 hours, of the decision by DGS and Infarmed on the security of the continuity of the administration of the vaccine of AstraZeneca in Portugal.
The coordinator of the vaccination plan against Covid-19 avoids expressing a position on the temporary suspension of administration of the AstraZeneca vaccine, but says he is confident of resuming the vaccination process in “five or six days”.
“If the pause is not too long, we will resume the pace we were having with the AstraZeneca vaccine and we will recover this pause very quickly, which is a pause of five, six days … whatever is necessary to clarify the doubt that exists in this moment “, Vice-Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo said in an interview to the Lusa agency.
With around 400 thousand vaccines from AstraZeneca received, 230 thousand already administered and 170 thousand kept in storage, the person responsible for the vaccination plan expressed his confidence in a quick clarification of the situation, which could occur “in five, six days” and the resumption of the vaccination in that same period.
The admiral guaranteed, however, that Portugal’s decision went through a “pause” and not a suspension.
“It is not a suspension, it is a pause. There is nothing to indicate that there will be a suspension of the vaccine. There is a pause to assess the data in a precautionary manner, avoiding continuing to vaccinate until there is greater certainty about what happened and the cases that have been described as being severe cases of reaction, where it is not possible to understand whether it is a reaction or not to the reaction to the vaccination. As long as this has not been clarified, vaccination has been put on hold” he explained.
Economy
CTT’s profits fall 43% in 2020 to 16.7 million euros.
CTT’s profit fell 42.9% last year, compared to 2019, to 16.7 million euros, in a year marked by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Correios de Portugal announced.
Revenues rose 0.7% to 745.2 million euros in the period under analysis, according to information available on the website of the Portuguese Securities Market Commission (CMVM).
Income before taxes, interest, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) fell 10.8% to 90.5 million euros.
Tourism
Covid-19: Tourist accommodation with losses of 80% in January – INE.
The National Statistics Institute (INE) today confirmed the drop of 78.3% of guests and 78.2% of overnight stays in January, which led to a drop in income of more than 80%.
INE confirmed the data that had been advanced in the quick estimate made on March 1st, with the tourist accommodation sector registering 308,400 guests and 709,900 overnight stays in January, which corresponds to year-on-year decreases of 78.3% and 78.2%, respectively and which compare with the December records, with decreases of 71.2% and 72.6%.
In the first month of the year, the income recorded in tourist accommodation establishments, in turn, reached 33 million euros in total and 24 million euros in relation to the room, corresponding to losses of 81.2% and 80.8%, respectively (-73.9% and -74.4% in December, in the same order).
The net bed occupancy rate (9.4%), in turn, decreased by 19.7 percentage points (against the decline of 18.7 percentage points in December).
The domestic market (weight of 60.1%) contributed with 427.0 thousand overnight stays, which represented a decrease of 60.3% (-54.2% in December).
Overnight stays in foreign markets decreased by 87.0% (-83.2% in the previous month) and reached 282.9 thousand.
In January, 54% of tourist accommodation establishments were closed or there was no movement of guests (52.3% in December).