Portugal Situation Report Wednesday 14^th April 2021

Introduction

Good morning – Last night, as expected, the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, submitted to Parliament the renewal of the State of Emergency until April 30th, to allow measures to contain the pandemic.

This is the 15th State of Emergency diploma that Marcelo has submitted for authorisation by Parliament in the current context of the Covid-19 pandemic and will be discussed and voted by deputies this afternoon.

Earlier he stated “I would like it to be the last renewal of the State of Emergency, coinciding with the end of April. Truly, it was my will. And I think it is the will of all Portuguese people”.

Tomorrow the Council of Ministers will meet, following which there will be an announcement on the next stage of de-confinement planned to start on Monday 19^th April. This depends on the government red lines and whether or not these have been crossed.

Certainly, we are in the days of yet another State of Emergency, which the President of the Republic said last week that he wanted to be the last, but the indicators and progress of vaccination are not yet sure about the next phase of deflation. The Government has a challenge of what to do, namely how to carry forward at two speeds: local and national.

That was one of the Prime Minister’s concerns at the Infarmed meeting held yesterday. In the debate phase of the meeting, António Costa asked the experts for more information on what to do “locally” and asked them if they could “better” adjust the municipality’s indicators.

This “one-stop-shop” of information, that the Infarmed meeting provides, is worth studying as it covered; vaccine roll out; incidence and transmission rates; the situation concerning the disease and it’s variants, to name but a few. A 5 minute read of the content of this briefings will give readers the main information which is important at this time. What it did not include was matters concerning borders which is a separate issue. If you have not read it is available here.

The briefing show that a great deal of progress has been made over the last few weeks, although there was concern and caution in respect of rising incidence rates in some 20+ high risk municipalities.

Of note during the meeting was the briefing by Henrique Gouveia e Melo, coordinator of the task force for vaccination against Covid-19, that Portugal will vaccinate the entire population over 60 years of age “by the last week of May and the first week of June, which gives us some hope”.

Unfortunately, news broke just hours later in a statement from Johnson & Johnson that they will delay rollout of their vaccine in Europe over concerns of an extremely rare disorder involving people with blood clots in combination with low platelets, in a small number of individuals who have received our Covid-19 vaccine. Portugal was due to receive just over 300,000 doses of this today. We await news on the impact of this delay on the implementation plan.

According to the so-called “risk matrix” that is guiding the process of deflation, if there are more than 120 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants in the last 14 days or if the Rt (the transmissibility index) rises above 1, we enter the yellow zone, which implies stopping the deflation.

If both indicators are above the limit (that is, more than 120 cases and Rt above 1), we enter the red zone, which forces us not only to brake, but even to go backwards in the worst case scenario. Any possible change in the measures planned for the next phase of the de-confinement plan will only be decided at the Council of Ministers meeting.

We have already been seeing a more favourable epidemiological situation”, stressed the Minister of Health yesterday, adding that the Government will seek to guarantee the “balance” between the progress of the deflation and public health.

“These days are decisive for trends to be consolidated, in one direction or the other and for us to be able to make decisions on Thursday,” said Marta Temido. Only then will the Executive define what “stops” and what “advances” when it comes to de-confinement.

The next phase is a major one, with a great deal at stake, as it allows: face-to-face classes in secondary and higher education; cinemas, theatres, auditoriums and concert halls to reopen; and all stores and shopping centres to open; restaurants, cafes and pastries in all its space (and not only, as now, on the terraces, although the hours remain the same). Outdoor events with limited capacity will also be allowed. Weddings and baptisms will be able to have a capacity of 25%.

This is a major challenge facing parliament and government on how to achieve the right balance at this crucial time. We await developments and will keep you up to date which they are announced..

Have a Safe Day.

Headlines

Covid-19: WHO warns of exponential growth of the Pandemic.

The World Health Organization (WHO) warned yesterday of the increase in the number of cases of Covid-19 in seven consecutive weeks and in the number of deaths in four weeks, stressing that the pandemic “is growing exponentially”.

The warning was left by the organization’s Director General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, and by the technical leader of response to the Covid-19, Maria Van Kerkhove, in the regular press conference on the evolution of the pandemic, transmitted from the WHO headquarters in Geneva, in Switzerland.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus pointed out that last week was the fourth that recorded the highest number of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in a week, as a result of the “great increase in the number of cases” detected in several countries in Asia and the Middle East.

WHO technical leader in response to Covid-19, Maria Van Kerkhove, warned that “the path of the pandemic is growing exponentially”, noting that last week there was a 90 percent increase in the transmission of infections.

According to the American epidemiologist, the measures to contain the pandemic “are not applied consistently” by countries.

The Director-General of WHO has warned that the Covid-19 pandemic “is far from over” but can be controlled “in a matter of months” with an “equitable vaccination” and with a “concerted effort” of containment measures, which include physical distance, use of masks, ventilation of spaces, testing, screening, isolation and hand hygiene.

“It depends on the decisions and actions of governments and people, every day. The choice is ours,” said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, defending “a coherent, articulated and comprehensive approach” to public health measures.

According to the WHO leader, “confusion, complacency, lack of consistency in public health measures and their application” are “increasing the transmission” of infections and “taking lives”.

“Vaccines are a vital and powerful tool, but they are not the only tool” against Covid-19, he pointed out, stressing that “healthy people have already died” from the disease and “those who survived” persist, in some cases, with symptoms such as fatigue, dizziness, insomnia, muscle pain, anxiety or depression.

Covid-19 Situation

On Tuesday Portugal recorded 5 deaths and 408 new cases of Covid-19 according to the daily report of the Directorate-General for Health (DGS). The key figures were:

Confirmed Cases: 828,173 (+ 408 / + 0.05 %)

Number of admitted: 459 (-20 /-4.18 %)

Number of ICU admitted: 118 (-1 /-0.84 %)

Deaths: 16,923 (+ 5 / + 0.03 %)

Recovered: 785.809 (+ 746 / + 0.10 %)

Active cases: 25,441 (-343 / – 1.3%)

Safe Communities comparisons/trends: shows that deaths increase compared with Monday, but below latest weeks daily average (6); new cases – Just below latest week’s daily average (418) and recoveries were nearly double new cases.

Hospitalisations were the lowest since 13th September 2020 and 6420 less compared to number in hospital 1st February 2021, and in ICU there was a small decrease from Monday.

Active cases were the lowest since 30^th September 2020 and those under surveillance lowest since July 2020. – No deaths in Alentejo, Algarve, Madeira and Azores.

It is important not to let our guard down at this crucial time. Those in hospital and ICU remain high. This means complying with the rules in place, – wearing face masks, social distancing, hygiene and no social gatherings.

Covid-19. More than 100 asymptomatic people reported positive self-test to the SNS 24.

More than a hundred users without symptoms of Covid-19 reported to the SNS 24 the result of a positive self-test, according to data from the Shared Services of the Ministry of Health (SPMS).

The tests began to be distributed in pharmacies and drugstores on April 2 and until this Monday “the SNS 24 registered 114 contacts of asymptomatic users who reported a positive self-test result”, said SPMS in response to the Lusa agency.

“When users transmit an inconclusive or positive result, a request for a Covid-19 laboratory test (RT-PCR) is automatically issued”, explain the Shared Services of the Ministry of Health (SPMS).

About 100,000 Covid-19 self-tests have already been distributed to pharmacies in the country, announced ADIFA, a non-profit association representing “full-service pharmaceutical distributors”, who ensure “several times a day, a timely and continuous supply of pharmacies nationwide, without exception or differentiation”.

Moderate incidence in Portugal. Algarve region with higher values.

Portugal currently has a cumulative incidence at 14 days “moderate, close to 71 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, and with a slightly increasing trend”.

The data was communicated this Tuesday morning by André Peralta Santos, Director of Information and Analysis Services of the Directorate-General for Health, at the Infarmed meeting in Lisbon.

Speaking at the presentation session on the “Epidemiological situation of Covid-19 in Portugal”, the official said that “the Algarve is the region of mainland Portugal that has a higher incidence”.

With regard to the geographic dispersion of the incidence, there are 22 municipalities with a cumulative incidence greater than 120 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, which corresponds to a population of approximately 646,000 people.

These counties are spread over all the Regional Health Administrations (ARS), but Alentejo and Algarve are the regions that have more counties with a higher incidence.

In the week of March 21st to 27th, the Baixo Alentejo and the Algarve registered greater growth, than in the following week “some growth also in the Algarve area, from Barlavento to Sotavento, and then in the last week with some growth also in the north area Greater Porto and Trás os Montes ”

Variants

United Kingdom variant accounted for 83% of cases in March.

João Paulo Gomes, from INSA, said that there was a “significant reduction” of the original variant in Portuguese territory, which appeared in Spain, and that it has been progressively replaced by the United Kingdom variant. In March, this represented 83% of cases of Covid-19 in Portugal. In the North it is “clearly less represented”, at 71%; in the Algarve and Madeira, it reaches 94%.

The Manaus (Brazil) variant represents 0.4% of cases in Portugal. South Africa, on the other hand, showed “very significant growth”, rising from 0.1% in February to 2.5% in March.

There are now 29 cases of the Brazilian variant, a number in line with what is recorded at European level. João Paulo Gomes recalled that these values are “residual”, confessing himself surprised due to the proximity between Portugal and Brazil.

The South African variant currently represents 53 cases in the country. The expert stressed the importance of border control “to try to understand if there is a lack of control” of the spread of this variant, which he said was being introduced, mainly, from Mozambique.

João Paulo Gomes recalled that there are signs that this variant may be more resistant to vaccines, but clarified that the situation is not a cause for alarm.

The Brazilian variant is “very controlled”, said João Paulo Gomes. The South African variant, on the other hand, deserves “some concern” and requires attention to border control.

Vaccines

Johnson & Johnson to delay rollout of their vaccine in Europe.

The Company made a statement yesterday: “The safety and well-being of the people who use our products is our number one priority. We are aware of an extremely rare disorder involving people with blood clots in combination with low platelets in a small number of individuals who have received our Covid-19 vaccine.

The United States Centres for Disease Control (CDC) and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) are reviewing data involving six reported U.S. cases out of more than 6.8 million doses administered. Out of an abundance of caution, the CDC and FDA have recommended a pause in the use of our vaccine.

In addition, we have been reviewing these cases with European health authorities. We have made the decision to proactively delay the rollout of our vaccine in Europe.

We have been working closely with medical experts and health authorities, and we strongly support the open communication of this information to healthcare professionals and the public.

The CDC and FDA have made information available about proper recognition and management due to the unique treatment required with this type of blood clot. The health authorities advise that people who have received our Covid-19 vaccine and develop severe headache, abdominal pain, leg pain, or shortness of breath within three weeks after vaccination should contact their health care provider.”

Vaccines prevented 78 to 140 deaths – over 80’s.

Stressing the importance of vaccination in reducing the number of cases in people over 80, the specialist at the Dr. Ricardo Jorge Institute points out that vaccines have prevented, so far, 78 to 140 deaths from Covid-19 in Portugal. “There is a significant effect of vaccination coverage on the population aged 80 and over.”

Compared to the rest of Europe, “Portugal has a much lower incidence level”, even though the R is increasing. The country today has fewer restrictive measures than many other European countries and there has been” an increase in the number of contacts, mainly in the age groups under 69″, although it is less than what happened at Christmas time.

The increase in R(t) and mobility in the country, which is advancing in the process of deflation, obliges to compensate with other health security rules.

Baltazar Nunes listed the main ones, such as increasing testing, isolating cases and tracking contacts, reducing the number of contacts outside the family bubble, and reinforcing measures in places such as school and work.

Last but not least, increase vaccine coverage, especially over the age of 65.

Vaccinations

Vaccination of Firefighters.

Lisbon, April 13, 2021 (Lusa) – All firefighters will be vaccinated with the first dose of the vaccine against Covid-19 by the end of this week, the Minister of Internal Affairs announced in parliament today.

“The firefighters completed this week the vaccination process in first dose, this will allow them to be ready not only for the pre-hospital response, which they never failed to ensure, but also to bring it closer to the time of the greatest number of rural fires,” he said. Eduardo Cabrita.

The minister said that the vaccination rate in the Public Security Police and in the Republican National Guard is “more than 50%”.

The “CVP testing program – Higher Education” obtained significant support from higher education institutions, which begin this week the screening of Covid-19 with teachers and non-teachers, and then advanced the testing of students on the 19th of this month.

66 thousand test kits have already been delivered to higher education and scientific institutions.

The “CVP testing program – Higher Education» develops as planned when it was launched by the Directorate-General for Higher Education (DGES) and the Directorate-General for Health (DGS) on 19 March and is part of the implementation of a screening strategy for the restart of face-to-face activities in scientific and higher education institutions, carried out in conjunction with the Portuguese Red Cross (CVP).

As of this Thursday, April 8, 66,000 rapid antigen testing kits had been delivered to the public and private scientific and higher education institutions by CVP (at no additional cost to the institutions). Dealing with a Program that is dynamic and that is ongoing, the institutions will continue to receive kits weekly, whenever requested by them.

The screening strategy designed to restart face-to-face activities in scientific and educational institutions, provides for the possibility for scientific and higher education institutions, public and private, to ensure adequate internal conditions for carrying out tests.

Enforcement

ASAE again inspects terraces and closes seven.

On Monday (12), ASAE inspected 248 terraces and commercial spaces across the country, in an action to “verify compliance with legal requirements”, with 28 brigades involved, 19 administrative proceedings initiated and seven esplanades closed.

“As operational results of this action, which involved 28 brigades, there are 19 administrative infraction proceedings, 11 of which are related to the rules defined in Decree No. 6/2021, of April 3, for non-compliance with the rules of operation of the activity in terraces and eight administrative offences for infractions related to economic activity (licensing and complaints book) “, according to the statement released today by the Food and Economic Security Authority (ASAE).

The inspection action Operation Esplanada Segura II, which took place from north to south of the country, also suspended the activity of two stores in the municipality of Porto, with areas greater than 200 square meters, the limit allowed in the current phase of reopening of establishments with doors to the street, according to the rules defined by the Government for deflation.

It was also “suspended the activity of two beverage catering establishments, as it was admitting customers inside and seven terraces closed in catering and beverage establishments due to non-compliance with their operating rules”.

Opinion “Government should consider postponing the next phase of deflation”.

The R (t) – transmissibility value of Covid-19 – continues to increase at a “significant and worrying” pace, states Carlos Antunes, professor at the Faculty of Sciences (FCL) of the University of Lisbon. “It is not the value itself that is worrying, but the pace of its evolution”, he explained, maintaining that “the R (t) has been rising since mid-February and always at the same pace, one hundredth a day, and we are to further enhance this rise with the lack of definition.

Therefore, whoever will have to decide in the next few days, should already be concerned, although we are not dealing with 3,000 or 6,000 cases, nor with 500 full beds in the intensive care units “, he argues the professor of the Department of Geographic Engineering, Geophysics and Energy at FCL.

“Cautions have to be taken now and whoever decides has to think about what he is going to do, because on the 19th, the date for the third phase of deflation, the R (t) should already be at 1.18”. In other words, if measures are not taken in time, the “multiplication of cases that, according to our method, is now 21 days old, will now move to 14 days. And this, indeed, is worrying”. Not least because there is no prospect of a retraction in the mobility of society, and “the tendency is to get worse”.

The warning is left to politicians and specialists who are now meeting again at Infarmed to analyze the evolution of the disease in the country, basedf on data from the Directorate-General for Health (DGS) and the National Institute of Health Ricardo Jorge (INSA).