Portugal Safety and Security Report Wednesday 16th August 2023
Good morning, something that has been troubling me over the last week is what led to the devastating rural fire in Maui, Hawaii, resulting in a death toll of 106 and at least 1300 missing. Not only could this turn out to be the largest death toll from a rural fire in the US in last 100 years as stated, but one of the worlds greatest disasters from a rural fire.
resulting in a death toll of around one hundred but almost certainly to increase much higher.
Following this the Minister of Internal Administration sent a very clear message on Monday that Portugal must be prepared for “extreme fires” like those that occurred in Hawaii and Canada.
José Luís Carneiro recalls that this year “we have the greatest number of resources ever”, but stresses that responsible behaviour on the part of the population is also needed. What in effect the Minister is saying that the fires may well be intense, not necessarily the same impact provided everyone is aware of the hazards and is prepared accordingly. The minister stressed that we are still in the middle of the critical period of fires and admits that this year “adverse conditions could last until the end of September, mid-October”.
Turning to the Maui fires, brush fires were already burning on 9th August. Those fires were stoked on Wednesday by a combination of low humidity and strong mountain winds, brought by Hurricane Dora, a Category 4 storm hundreds of miles to the south in the Pacific Ocean. No cause for the fire has yet been determined, but experts said one possibility was that active power lines that fell in high winds ignited the wildfire that ultimately spread to Lahaina.
This is the worst fire in terms of fatalities in over one hundred years in US territory. Although the focus is now very much on recovery, there are inevitable questions on what many residents are stating that there was a lack of warning. Fires as we know can occur any time, but one of the most important aspects of preparedness is knowing what the fire hazards are at the time and place.
In the case of Maui what has been reported is that at the time of the fire most of the island was experiencing worsening drought conditions in recent weeks which probably also contributed to the fire. Nearly 16 percent of Maui County was in a severe drought on Tuesday, according to the U.S. NOAA have daily Watches, Warnings or Advisories for three areas of Maui which shows alerts currently in effect for those areas and is normally updated every two-three minutes. Unfortunately it is not historical so no data for 8th August.
Also there was a hurricane passing to the south, with winds on 8th August peaking at between 80 km/h 107km/h. (Source US National weather centre)
Hurricanes are closely tracked by the highly effective US Hurricane Centre (NOAA) with estimates of wind strengths, direction of the hurricane and relevant data which is published every few hours.
Fire danger info is provided to the population through various communication channels when deemed necessary (mid to high likability of fires to occur): TV, radio, and by text message. They also have a fire alert system, which is known by the public and has been used in the past. According to the news, this system has not been activated this time and the population was not correctly alerted. However, the danger of fires has been reported through regular means, as explained above. On that day, a message has been sent to inform the population about the potential danger of fires. However, it is said that due to power outages (because of strong winds), the message might have not reached everyone.
Hawaii has what it says is one of the world’s largest siren systems to warn people of all kinds of events, including wildfires and hurricanes. Maui County has 80. State records don’t indicate that the sirens sounded in Lahaina, according to the Associated Press.
When asked at a press conference why was the state not more prepared? Hawaii Gov. Josh Green response, “We’ve never experienced a wildfire that affected a city like this before.”
Following this fire there will be a major review with recommendations to try and avoid a repeat of this disaster where perhaps hundreds have died, in the future. The lessons learned affect not only the USA but also other countries where similar risks exist.
However it should not bring disasters to bring about change. We need to think ahead and plan ahead with the best knowledge and tools that are available. It should not be case that we were not prepared because we had not experience it before! Other countries have and we need to learn from their experiences, as Portugal did following the 2017 fires.
What this shows us is the importance of preparedness and when fires do take place the need to have a basic understanding of wildfires behaviour especially those live in fire prone areas.
With that please have a safe week ahead.
News
“Aldeia Segura” program: more than half of the villages do not have an evacuation plan
More than half of the villages in the “Safe Villages, Safe People” program do not have a defined evacuation plan. The program covers more than 2,200 villages.
Created in 2018, the “Safe Villages, Safe People” programs aim to create protection zones and places of refuge, prevent people from fires and reduce the consequences in case of fires and possible evacuations.
There are currently 2,255 villages involved in this program. According to data provided by Jornal de Notícias, in the year of creation of the program, in 2018,
There were 1,793 villages, from then on the number has always increased. +170 in 2019, +29 villages in 2020, +65 in 2021, +176 in 2022 and lastly 12 villages in this last year, the lowest number of new villages ever.
The internet portal also shows that of the total of 2255 villages, only 918 villages have an evacuation plan, that is, more than half do not have this plan defined, but there is an increase compared to last year, of 60 new plans.
The latest data from this month show that Guarda, Bragança and Viseu are the districts with the most safe villages:
Guarda has 503 villages, 59 more than the previous year.
Bragança and Viseu have not changed in relation to last year.
The initially defined goal was 7,000 villages by the end of 2030.
In response to SIC, the National Emergency and Civil Protection Authority says that these targets may be revised but that the balance of municipalities and parishes is, so far, positive.