The Overseas Situation Report Friday 23 July 2021  

by Mike Evans

“Hope is the thing that is left to us, in a bad time. I shall get up Sunday morning and wind the clock, as a contribution to order and steadfastness”

– E.B. White

In this report we are taking a look at the latest Covid 19 situation across the world and where the virus is surging again.

Across the world, covid-19 is again surging. The global number of new coronavirus cases grew by at least 12 percent over the past week, the World Health  Organization announced on Wednesday, with a rise in infections seen in almost all regions.

In the United States, the seven-day average of infections soared nearly 70 percent, the White House said last week. Asian nations including Bangladesh, Indonesia and Thailand are seeing their worst waves of infections yet. Meanwhile, this week, Europe  became the first region to see more than 50 million covid-19 cases.

Countries in Latin America, a region that has already seen an enormous number of deaths from covid-19, are witnessing another upswing. And in sub-Saharan Africa, once largely spared from the worst of the crisis, the virus is hitting hard in many countries, with the continent seeing its deadliest period of the pandemic so far.

To take a closer look at these trends we go to Worldometer.info which compiles statistics from across the world. To get a feel for the problem that is happening we are going to look at the weekly trends which compare data collected in the past 7 days with the previous 7 days. This gives a picture of what is happening across the world in the past two weeks.

In terms of number of new cases the UK has the dubious title of the highest number of new cases across the world in the week at 331,094 compared to 242,097 in the previous week, a rise of 37%. Next comes Indonesia with 313,784 and then the USA with 294,480.

In terms of deaths in the past week across the world we have seen only a slight rise of 0.5% compared to the previous week (55,393 compared to 55,119).

Lets now look at each continent and start with Europe. Over the past week new cases have increased by 28% and deaths have increased by 3%. As previously noted the UK has the highest number of new cases and in Europe the second highest is Spain with 178,249 new cases, a rise week on week of 24%. In sheer numbers Russia is next with 177,249 new cases although as we have said on a number of occasions these figures are very hard to quantify when compared to the deaths in the country and many observers including some of the Russian government ministers estimate that the figures should be around three times what is stated.

France follows Russia with a total of 81,877 new cases, a massive increase of 137% on the previous week at a time when France is starting to open up the country after the previous lockdowns. According to the French Prime Minister, The Delta variant is now responsible for most of all the new cases and of those almost 96% are from unvaccinated people. The French government has begun to present lawmakers this week with a new plan to fight Covid-19, which will include requiring a health pass in a wide array of venues from the start of August and making vaccination mandatory for health workers. Prime Minister Castex said the health pass would not be required in schools when the academic year begins in September.

The so-called passe sanitaire will be required for all events or places with more than 50 people as of Wednesday before being extended to restaurants, cafés and shopping centres in August, President Emmanuel Macron announced in a televised address last week. Once inside, however, people can take off their face masks, which remain necessary inside shops or businesses or on public transportation. Tens of thousands of vaccine sceptics took to the streets in protest over the new measures last week, accusing Macron of running a vaccine “dictatorship”. Around 35.5 million people—just over half of France’s population—have received at least one vaccine dose so far.

In other countries across Europe both Italy and Ireland have seen new cases double in the week although both have seen deaths drop by a third, due in the most part to the increased vaccinations in the respective countries.  One particular statistic worthy of note is the Isle of Man, a small island off the NW coast of England with a population of just 85,000 saw a rise in new infections over the past seven days from 141 the previous week to 1,199 cases.

Across the Atlantic to North America and we see that the USA has seen a 54% rise in cases while southern neighbour Mexico saw a 34% rise in cases from 54,849 to 73,586. Concerning for Mexico is that while the USA saw their deaths reduce by 7%, Mexico saw a 16% increase in the week with a total of 1,533 deaths.  Across the Caribbean, cases have risen again in the past week with Jamaica, Cuba, Martinique all showing large increases with just St Lucia and Barbados showing a drop in cases compared to the previous week.

In Asia the region showed a 10% increase in cases and a 9% increase in deaths. Indonesia led the way with new cases with 313,784 compared to 290,649 the previous week. Iran and Malaysia were the next two highest countries in the region with Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam all showing high increases compared to the previous 7 days. The surge in cases in Indonesia Infections started rising toward the end of May, following the Eid Al-Fitr holidays to mark the end of the Islamic fasting month — and soon grew exponentially. According to health experts, the crisis is being fueled  by the spread of the more infectious Delta variant, first identified in India. “Every day we are seeing this Delta variant driving Indonesia closer to the edge of a Covid-19 catastrophe,” Jan Gelfand, head of the Indonesian delegation of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), said in late June.

Experts have blamed the government for its slow response in not implementing strict lockdowns last year after cases were first reported in the country, and its alleged failure to invest in efficient testing and tracing systems. As of July 20, Indonesia had recorded nearly 3 million total cases and more than 76,000 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. But experts fear the figures underestimate the real spread in the country due to a lack of testing. A World Health Organization (WHO) report in July said inadequate testing continues to be a problem, with more than 50% of provinces reporting a testing rate below the recommended benchmark.

“Without appropriate testing, many provinces are unable to isolate confirmed cases on time,” the report said.The islands of Java and Bali were placed under emergency lockdown on July 3 along with other cities across the archipelago. Domestic travel is not restricted, though it is dependent on a negative Covid-19 test. On July 20, Indonesia extended Covid-19 restrictions to July 25.

Hospitals across Java are being pushed to the brink and the country’s oxygen supply is running dangerously low, while prices of oxygen have surged. More than 60 people died in a single facility in early July after a hospital on Java nearly exhausted its oxygen supply, though a hospital spokesman could not confirm if all the dead had contracted Covid-19.

In Jakarta, nearly half of the capital’s 10.6 million residents may have contracted Covid-19, according to a health survey published July 10. Out of 5,000 people tested between March 15-31, 44.5% had antibodies, indicating they had been infected with the virus.

In South America there is good news to bring. Almost all countries in the continent have seen new cases drop in the past week as well as deaths. Brazil, Columbia and Argentina still have the highest number of new cases but these are now dropping as are deaths in all these three countries. Only Venezuela and Ecuador are showing a slight rise in new case over the past week compared to the previous week.

The same cannot be said for the continent of Africa unfortunately. Whilst South Africa has seen a drop of 27% in new cases in the last week ( 90,667 compared to 124,469) we are seeing rises in some of the more northern countries. Morocco, Botswana, Rwanda and Algeria have all shown large increases week on week and there has also been a corresponding increase in deaths in these countries although not as high a percentage as new cases. The key to all of these issues for the Africa continent is the supply of vaccines. It is a fact that while Europe and the USA can boast up to 60% of their population having at least one vaccine the countries of Africa have inoculated just 1% of their population to date and this will inevitably lead to more infections and deaths not just on the continent but in other parts of the world unless the is more equality of distribution of the vaccine.

Our final destination is Oceania, The area has seen a big rise in new cases over the past week with a rise of 67% in new cases and a worrying rise of 200% in deaths in the region.

The troubled tropical paradise has been devastated by a runaway outbreak of the Delta variant which began in April, ending a year without local transmission and quashing hopes the vital tourism sector could reopen. Opposition leaders and welfare groups have called for strict stay-at-home orders but the government has resisted, arguing the economic cost would be too high. Instead, it has introduced a hardline vaccination drive dubbed “no jabs, no job”, which makes vaccinations compulsory for all workers.

Economy Minister Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum defended the strategy Friday, saying it was the only way out of the “darkness and difficulty” engulfing Fiji. “We are not dispensing band-aid solutions or depending on drastic and damaging measures that will cause structural unemployment and widespread poverty,” he told parliament while delivering the annual budget.

Rather than lockdowns, Sayed-Khaiyum said the government’s vision was to inoculate 80 percent of adult Fijians by the end of October. Hesaid the government was determined to hit its targets, even though there is widespread scepticism towards vaccines in Fiji fuelled by online misinformation. “Without vaccines we cannot mount an economic recovery — no jabs, no opportunities,” he said. “No reopening of stadiums, restaurants or borders. No jabs, no tourism, no national airline, no chance to see our friends and families abroad.”

Under the policy, public servants must go on leave if they have not had their first injection by August 15 and will be dismissed if they do not receive their second by November 1.

And finally to Australia, which saw an 47% increase in new cases in the last week.This has caused three states to be in lockdown as coronavirus circles within the community, causing borders to slam shut. Victoria’s extended lockdown will continue for at least another week, and South Australia has entered a seven-day lockdown. Queensland and Victoria have locked out South Australians and New South Wales increased border screening. NSW continues to battle the Delta outbreak, with Greater Sydney’s lockdown slated to end on July 30 but expected to last longer.

The restrictions in place are fairly draconian according to some, with outdoor gatherings limited to two people (excluding members of the same household). Exercise and outdoor recreation restricted to local government areas or within a 10km radius. No browsing in shops; only one person per household per day can leave the house for shopping. Funerals limited to 10 people only. All construction work has been cancelled across Greater Sydney and non-essential retail is closed. Residents are only able to leave their homes for essential reasons including grocery shopping, exercise, receiving medical care and essential work and education that cannot be done from home.

There is still a long way to go before we can say this pandemic is over.

In the meantime, Stay Safe.

Total Cases Worldwide – 193,007,589

Total Deaths Worldwide – 4,146,092

Total Recovered Worldwide – 175,483,945

Total Active Cases Worldwide – 13,377,552 (6.9% of the total cases)

Total Closed Cases Worldwide – 179,630,037

Information and resources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table

https://www.9news.com.au/national/

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/21/asia/indonesia-covid-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html