SITREP ISSUED 1ST OCTOBER AT 0900 HRS
The US Hurricane Centre stated last night that Lorenzo has not changed appreciably during the past several hours on satellite imagery, with an eye still present along with a large cloud shield in the north eastern quadrant. Wind estimates remain near 175 kms so that will be the initial wind speed. The initial wind field has also grown and that is reflected in the wind radii analyses.
The hurricane is now moving faster and has turned north eastward at about 31 kph. Lorenzo should continue to accelerate to the northeast during the next couple of days ahead of a large mid- latitude trough, with the hurricane passing near the western Azores.
Lorenzo is forecast to slowly weaken on 1st October due to the cyclone moving over progressively cooler waters.
The IPMA latest bulletin on 30th September at 1800hrs: Hurricane Lorenzo – Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson * scale was approximately 1650 km west / southwest of the Azores.
Maintaining trajectory forecasts, the center of the hurricane is expected to pass Category 1 on Wednesday (October 2), slightly west of Flores, particularly affecting the Western group. However, the entire archipelago will feel the effects of Hurricane Lorenzo. Therefore, it is suggested to follow the evolution of the meteorological situation through the IPMA website (www.ipma.pt) and to obtain any recommendations from the Azores Regional Civil Protection and Fire Service (www.prociv. azores.gov.pt).
Western Group – southeast wind blowing from the north-west with gusts in the order of 190 km / h (with a probability of 40% of the maximum gust exceeding 200 km / h), sometimes heavy rain and waves from the south passing southwest with significant height between 10 and 15 meters, with a maximum wave height of up to 25 meters.
Central Group – southwest wind gusting up to 150 km / h and southwest waves passing west with a significant height between 9 and 12 meters, the maximum wave height being up to 22 meters.
Eastern Group – west waves of significant height 7 to 8 meters and gusting winds of 85 km / h.
The President of the Government announced today that the Azores Emergency Plan will be activated from 2000 hrs on Tuesday, October 1, and called on all Azoreans to follow the recommendations of the Regional Civil Protection Service before and during the planned Hurricane Lorenzo passes through the Region.
At a press conference at the headquarters of the Regional Civil Protection and Fire Protection Service of the Azores (SRPCBA), Vasco Cordeiro also announced that, as a preventive measure, the Government of the Azores has decided to close schools, kindergartens, kindergartens, occupational activity centres and day centres on Wednesday, October 2, on the islands of the Western and Central groups.
A major element of the emergency plan is the prepositioning of the relevant emergency service, the police, Army and Navy to areas which are likely to be most affected.
It is also worth mentioning that there will be some enormous seas on the eastern side of Lorenzo. The hurricane will be accelerating to the northeast in the same general direction for a couple of days. Combined with the large size and intensity, this is a recipe for an amplified wave field on the eastern side due to a phenomenon called trapped-wave fetch.