Portugal Safety and Security Report Wednesday 30^th August 2023

Good morning everyone. Well after a hot and dry period for many parts of the country in recent weeks, which has facilitated an average of some 82 fires a day over the last week alone, there are indications that the weather may change for the better, or worse, depending on your perspective. Better in those areas that need rain, worse if it comes in the form of downbursts that cause flooding and danger to people and property.

Various metrological models have been pointing for several days to the possibility of a situation that would produce instability with showers, thunderstorms, hail and strong gusts of wind throughout the country, in early September. However the weekend of the 2nd/3rd of September is still difficult to predict, due to Hurricane Franklin, a cyclone that will not touch land, but which will move the atmospheric elements and can complicate the forecast.

The “hand-to-hand struggle” between Franklin and the Azores High will be decisive to how the weather will evolve from early September on the mainland. We are monitoring closely.

Sometimes it is easy to become sceptical about weather forecasting, with what was predicted not coming to fruition, but with far improved technology available these days, it has in fact become far more accurate – due mainly to advanced satellites that can produce more information and imaging thus helping metreologists. Clearly the more accurate the information, the quality of the analysis and accuracy of bulletins, and most important timing, can help people prepare and thus reduce the impact of any natural disasters. The above is an example of the challenges they face.

However, one good example a few days ago was the charts and information produced by ESTOFEX the European Storm Warning system, which we published on our new Facebook group on Saturday morning, which gave very detailed indication of developing storms in parts of Europe particularly the Balearic Islands and Sardinia, which the following day came to fruition with storms and large hailstorms that cause considerable damage.

The live lightning site – meteoredpt showed several hours beforehand a huge number of electrical discharges approaching Sardinia. We published this and a few hours later there were high winds storms and considerable damage.

Although this did not impact Portugal these metrological tools are available for anyone to see and one does not need to be a meteorologist to realize the likely impact. The examples of extreme weather are everywhere to be seen and of course is not immune to this. So the moral of all this is to really study the forecasts in particular the wording from organisations such as, ESTROFEX, ECMWF, AMEAT, IPMA, and xxx to name but a few. Forewarned is forearmed. A simple analogy, would you delay getting treatment if all the evidence showed you had an illness – no of course not. The same goes for the forecasting of weather that could cause life threatening results or damage!

Scientists have, however highlighted the difficulty in anticipating extreme weather events, which are, by definition, rare. They argue that weather models are changing very quickly which leaves the world “partly flying blind” towards an increasingly unpredictable future.

July was the hottest month in human history and people across the world are suffering the consequences,” says Professor Piers Forster of the University of Leeds in the UK. “But this is what we would expect at this level of warming. This will be the average summer for 10 years unless the world cooperates and puts climate action at the top of the agenda.”

We are much more vulnerable than we thought. Our vulnerability is slapping us in the face” warn experts who make it clear, once again, that urgent pro-climate action is needed. From high temperatures to sudden torrential downpours, from wildfires to drought, “crazy” extreme weather conditions are just the “tip of the iceberg”, warn scientists.

Within a decade – if there is no strong climate strategy – the extreme weather events of 2023 will become the new normal, the world’s leading climate researchers told the British publication the Guardian, which asked them for an assessment of the climate crisis. See report in full below.

A sobering thought to end this introduction

Welcome back to Susan (website and our Northern Facebook group) from her well-deserved break.

Have a good week ahead.

News

Radical change is needed to reduce ‘crazy’ weather conditions, scientists warn

Torrential rains triggered flash floods in Aurdal, Norway, August 2023

The “crazy” episodes that the planet is already facing are just the “tip of the iceberg” compared to the “even worse effects that are yet to come”, they claim.

Scientists highlighted the difficulty in anticipating extreme weather events, which are, by definition, rare. They argue that weather models are changing very quickly which leaves the world “partly flying blind” towards an increasingly unpredictable future.

“July was the hottest month in human history and people across the world are suffering the consequences,” says Professor Piers Forster of the University of Leeds in the UK. “But this is what we would expect at this level of warming. This will be the average summer for 10 years unless the world cooperates and puts climate action at the top of the agenda.”

“The impacts are frighteningly more shocking than I – and many climate scientists I know – expected,” stresses Professor Krishna AchutaRao of the Indian Institute of Technology.

Christophe Cassou, CNRS researcher at Université Paul Sabatier Toulouse III in France, adds that “changes in [climate] risks have not been underestimated on a global scale. But the impacts, yes, were underestimated because we are much more vulnerable than we thought – our vulnerability is slapping us in the face”.

In 2023, temperatures are at historic highs and wildfires continue to devour millions of hectares of forest around the world, from North America to Europe and Asia. That’s why “we now feel that climate change is emerging above the normal climate” says Cassou.

Has the turning point already happened?

Scientists believe that the planet has not yet passed the tipping point for runaway climate change. But Rein Haarsma, of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, warns that that moment is approaching. “The extremes we see happening now could induce tipping points, such as the collapse of the Atlantic meridional circulation and the melting of the Antarctic ice sheets, which have devastating impacts.”

However, scientists say that a “small window” of opportunity remains open to avoid the worst of the climate crisis, and they point the finger at the use of fossil fuels.

“We need to stop burning fossil fuels”, reiterates Friederike Otto, from Imperial College London. He says it is imperative: “Now. This is not a time to allow companies to continue to make as much money as possible”.

Also joined by the critical voice of Emily Shuckburgh, from the University of Cambridge, UK: “Anyone who in any way perpetuates the fossil fuel age is firmly on the wrong side of history”.

“Knowing that we will look back on today’s extreme events as soft on what’s in our future is truly alarming,” adds Andrea Dutton of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA. And she leaves a clear message: “The speed with which we make this transition will define the future we will have.”