Portugal Situation Report Wednesday 23rd March 2022
All eyes at present are turned to the situation concerning Sao Jorge Island in the Azores where since 19th March there have been over 1800 low magnitude earthquakes of which around 100 have been felt.
At 7.24 pm (Azores time) yesterday the Regional Civil Protection and Fire Service of the Azores (SRPCBA), issued a bulletin preventively advising avoiding non-essential travel to the island of São Jorge, such as sporting or cultural activities, so as not to create additional constraints of possible assistance to the population. This bulletin “does not exclude possible events of greater magnitude” in other words a risk of an earthquake of greater magnitude than those already occurring.
The 
stated earlier yesterday that it is “preparing preventive measures that can be adopted in a possible scenario of a greater magnitude earthquake or a possible eruption, resulting from the seismic-volcanic crisis that is being recorded, since on the 19th of March, on the island of São Jorge”. The SRPCBA appeals to the population to remain calm, be attentive and follow the information and recommendations disseminated by the authorities, not contributing to the dissemination of rumours.
Interestingly it almost a year since the VOLCAZO 21.01 “national exercise which took place on 21st 2021. The scenario involved a simulation of an eruption of volcanic ash from the Furnas Volcano, located on the island of São Miguel, with a plume with 17 km of altitude that will affect the Oceanic FIR of Santa Maria, the Lisbon FIR and the Madrid FIR.
Still on the subject of civil protection the weather warnings issued over the last few days have proved correct with some very heavy showers on Sunday afternoon resulting in around 150 occorances being registered by the ANEPC. There was no serious flooding and no reports of injuries. Rain of course is much need at present but hopefully not in intensity that causes damage. Unfortunately the recent rains have had minimal impact on the drought situation especially in the Algarve. Please monitor the warnings issued today.
Turning to the war in Ukraine – In our last weekly report (last Wednesday) I stated there appears an increase is starting in the use of longer range artillery and missiles, which Russia can launch from within the safety of Russia held territory itself with greater collateral damage, at the same time protecting its troops. The more the resistance by Ukraine, the more likelihood of this type of bombardment continuing or indeed increasing”.
Certainly this appears to be materialising, with the use of cruise missiles and long range artillery, plus shots fired on Monday from Russian warships in the Black sea, the latter potentially as a prelude to a full scale attack on Odesa. This change of strategy appears to confirm that Russia is not making the headway it had planned using ground troops, and instead is using long range missile strikes to cause greater terror and also civilian casualties.
All indications are that ground troops are facing stiff resistance with Ukraine regain ground from Russian troops. There are reportedly communication problems in the Russian attack, lack of coordination and logistical support to the troops which are assessed as sufficient for only 3 days.
It is reported by Tukey who are that the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are making some headway but there are also reports particularly from the Russian side that there is more to be done by Ukraine to meet their demands.
The continuance of the war has resulted according to the UNHCR to the largest humanitarian crisis of its kind in Europe since World War II. Unless there is some sort of compromise through the negotiations soon, then there is an increased threat of more intense intervention a greater humanitarian crisis and more loss of life.
Turning to rural fire prevention. Yesterday the Order was published on land cleaning inspections for those who have properties in rural areas. There is a list of 1001 parishes, one less than last year and properties in these areas are liable for inspection between 1st and 30th May. It is important to finish the cleaning of your land well before this date to avoid a hefty fine. Should you have neighbours who are not cleaning their land and it poses a risk to your property, and you cannot contact them then you should consider reporting this to the GNR which can be dome online or through 808 200 520. The list is here: https://dre.pt/dre/detalhe/despacho/3369-2022-180830534
With that have a Safe Day
Covid-19
Portugal with fifth lowest number of deaths attributed to covid-19 in the EU
Portugal has a daily average of 1.73 deaths per million inhabitants in the last seven days, below the European Union average.
Portugal has the fifth lowest number of daily deaths attributed to covid-19 in the European Union, according to data from the statistical website Our World in Data.
According to the numbers updated this Monday, Portugal has a daily average of 1.73 deaths per million inhabitants attributed to the disease in the last seven days, below the European Union average in this indicator, which is 2.41, but above the world, of 0.66.
Of the EU countries, Latvia has the highest average (5.74), followed by Denmark (5.58), Finland (5.41), Greece (5.17) and Slovakia (5.03).
Worldwide and considering only countries with more than one million inhabitants, Hong Kong has the highest average (35.9 daily deaths attributed to covid-19), followed by Norway (10.87), South Korea (6 .02), Latvia and Denmark.
In terms of new daily cases per million inhabitants, Portugal dropped from an average of 1,200 in the previous seven days to 1,100 and went from the 13th to the 16th highest in the European Union.
In this indicator, Austria has the highest average, at 4,930, followed by Cyprus (3,880), the Netherlands (2,860), Germany (2,620) and Latvia (2,200).
Ukraine: Ukrainian community becomes second largest resident in Portugal
The refugees who are arriving in Portugal as a result of the war situation in Ukraine have made the Ukrainian community the second largest resident in the country, after the Brazilian.
Data from the Foreigners and Borders Service (SEF) sent to the Lusa agency indicate that since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, on February 24, around 18,400 citizens from that country have asked Portugal for temporary protection.
According to the SEF, before the invasion of Russia, 27,200 Ukrainians lived in Portugal, which currently totals more than 45,500 citizens, making this community the second largest resident in the country.
The Ukrainian community residing in Portugal moves to the place that until now was occupied by citizens from the United Kingdom, who are about 42,300.
According to the SEF, the most representative nationalities are from Brazil (209,072), followed by Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Cape Verde (35,913), India (30,995) and Italy (30,887).
Ukrainian citizens who fled the war can apply for temporary protection from Portugal for one year, which is extendable for two six-month periods.
War in Ukraine – Impact on food prices in Portugal
The director-general of APED, Gonçalo Lobo Xavier, assured today that there will be no disruption of products in supermarkets, signalling, however, that given the current situation, the increase in costs will have consequences on family income.
Speaking at the annual conference of the Association of Specialized Credit Institutions (ASFAC), Gonçalo Lobo Xavier began by underlining that “you don’t have to run to the supermarkets” to shop because “there won’t be a break in products “.
The director-general of the Portuguese Association of Distribution Companies (APED) referred, on the other hand, that the increase in costs (potentiated by the increase in the price of raw materials, the energy bill or by the disruption of distribution chains) will have an implication in the price paid by consumers and consequently on household income.
“In the price of foodstuffs, the average increase (…) will be around 30% and with that there is no efficiency, logistics, crushing of margins to support”, said the director general of APED, adding that “this will have consequences on the income of families and that will be a huge challenge that we will have, whether in digital or in [physical] stores”.
João Vieira Lopes, president of the Confederation of Commerce and Services of Portugal (CCP) also highlighted the situation of a “perfect storm” that is being experienced, pointing out the rise in inflation – more structural than initially thought -, the upward trend of interest rates and the problems with supply chains that came with the pandemic and which the war in Ukraine has accentuated, along with the escalation of energy and raw materials prices.
There is a shortage of diesel and there may be rationing in Europe, warn oil giants
President of Vitol, one of the largest crude oil traders in the world, identifies a systemic risk in the fact that half of Europe’s diesel imports come from Russia
Swiss company Vitol, one of the world’s biggest crude traders, warned that there could be rationing of diesel in Europe, describing the continent’s dependence on Russian and Middle Eastern fuel as a systemic risk.
Vitol’s chief executive admits that refineries may increase production to avoid rationing, although this remains a possibility.
According to the “Financial Times” this Tuesday, March 22, Russell Hardy said at a conference organized by the newspaper that Europe could lose 3 million barrels a day if it sanctions Russia, to which crude oil products are added. “What everyone is going to focus on will be diesel reserves. Europe imports half of its diesel from Russia and about half from the Middle East (…) the systemic discrepancy in diesel exists”, he underlined.
Torbjorn Tornqvist, co-founder and president of Gunvor, another major crude trader, said that the shortage of diesel “is a global problem” and that the gas market is “broken”. It never ” crossed his mind ” that gas below $ 100 per megawatt was considered ” very cheap , ” he said , according to the ” Financial Times ” , at a time of soaring prices .