Overseas Situation Report Friday 18^th June 2021

 

By Mike Evans

“If you’re going to be thinking, you may as well think big.” – Donald Trump

As we come to the end of a week where we saw the start of the introduction of a Vaccine Passport to facilitate travel around the world, this report is looking at the latest report from the World Health Organisation and how it reports on the Virus. The figures quoted here are based on the 13th June, so 5 days ago, but it does give an indication of how the trend is for the virus and the variants we are seeing across the globe.

Global numbers of cases and deaths continued to decrease over the past week (7-13 June 2021) with over 2.6 million new weekly cases and over 72,000 deaths, a 12% and a 2% decrease respectively, compared to the previous week. While the number of cases reported globally now exceeds 175 million, last week saw the lowest weekly case incidence since February 2021.

Declines in the number of new weekly cases were reported across all Regions except for the African Region. The South-East Asia, European and Western Pacific Regions reported marked declines in the number of new cases in the past week, whereas the Region of the Americas and the Eastern Mediterranean Region reported similar numbers as compared to the previous week.

While the number of new deaths reported in the past week decreased across all Regions except for the African and the South-East Asia Regions, globally mortality remains high with more than 10.000 deaths reported each day. While the epidemics in some of the most affected countries have started to show signs of slowing down, and the global weekly mortality rate continues to decline for a sixth consecutive week, many countries across all WHO Regions continue to struggle with access to vaccines, the spread of emerging SARSCoV-2 variants, and overburdened healthcare systems.

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from India (630,650 new cases; 31% decrease), Brazil (454,710 new cases; similar to the previous week), Argentina (177,693 new cases; 17% decrease), Colombia (176,661 new cases; similar to the previous week) and the United States of America (105,019 new cases; 6% increase).

We have all heard a lot about the new variants of Covid-19 and the WHO looks regularly at the spread of these around the world. The WHO, in collaboration with national authorities, institutions and researchers, routinely assess if variants of SARS-CoV-2 alter transmission or disease characteristics, or impact effectiveness of vaccines, therapeutics, diagnostics, or public health and social measures (PHSM) applied by national authorities to control disease spread.

Systems have been established to detect “signals” of potential Variants of Concern (VOCs) or Variants of Interest (VOIs) and assess these based on the risk posed to global public health. As these risks evolve, WHO will update lists of global VOIs and VOCs to support setting priorities for surveillance and research, and ultimately guide response strategies. National authorities may choose to designate other variants of local interest/concern and are encouraged to investigate and report on impacts of these variants.

The latest variant has been designated global VOI – Lambda. On 14 June 2021, a variant assigned to Pango lineage C.37, GISAID clade GR/452Q.V1, NextStrain clade 20D, was designated as a global VOI, and assigned the WHO label “Lambda”. This variant has been monitored as an alert for an extended period, and upon more information and updated assessments, is now considered as meeting the VOI working definition based upon evidence of continued emergence and suspected phenotypic implications.

Lambda has been associated with substantive rates of community transmission in multiple countries, with rising prevalence over time concurrent with increased Covid-19 incidence. The earliest sequenced samples were reported from Peru in August 2020. As of 15 June 2021, over 1,730 sequences have been uploaded to GISAID from 29 countries in five WHO regions.

Elevated prevalence has been noted particularly in South America in countries such as Chile (31% overall prevalence among submitted sequences since first detected in this location to date), Peru (9%), Ecuador (8%), and Argentina (3%). Authorities in Peru reported that 81% of Covid-19 cases sequenced since April 2021 were associated with Lambda. Argentina reported increasing prevalence of Lambda since the third week of February 2021, and between 2 April and 19 May 2021, the variant accounted for 37% of the Covid-19 cases sequenced.

In Chile, prevalence of Lambda has increased over time, accounting for 32% of sequenced cases reported in the last 60 days – co-circulating at similar rates to variant Gamma (33%), but outcompeting variant Alpha (4%) over the same period. Lambda carries a number of mutations with suspected phenotypic implications, such as a potential increased transmissibility or possible increased resistance to neutralizing antibodies.

However, there is currently limited evidence on the full extent of the impact associated with these genomic changes, and further robust studies into the phenotypic impacts are needed to better understand the impact on countermeasures and to control the spread.

Further studies are also required to validate the continued effectiveness of vaccines.

The following is an update to the Regions of the WHO and what has happened over the past week.

The African Region reported over 95,000 new cases and over 1,400 new deaths, a 44% and a 20% increase respectively compared to the previous week. The region reported a marked increase in weekly case incidences for the third consecutive week, with the largest increases in countries in the Southern, Eastern and Northern parts of Africa. The highest numbers of new cases were reported from South Africa (47,934 new cases; 80.8 new cases per 100,000 population; a 48% increase), Zambia (10,792 new cases; 58.7 new cases per 100,000; a 125% increase), and Uganda (8,574 new cases; 18.7 new cases per 100,000; a 49% increase). The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from South Africa (724 new deaths; 1.2 new deaths per 100,000 population; a 28% increase), Kenya (132 new deaths; 0.2 new deaths per 100,000; a 7% increase) and Namibia (88 new deaths; 3.5 new deaths per 100,000; a 1% increase).

The Region of the Americas reported over 1.1 million new cases, a similar number to the previous week, and just under 32,000 new deaths, a 7% decrease compared to the previous week. Despite this decrease, high levels of transmission and mortality are still being recorded in many countries in South and Central America. The highest numbers of new cases were reported from Brazil (454,710 new cases; 213.9 new cases per 100,000; similar to the previous week), Argentina (177,693 new cases; 393.2 new cases per 100,000; a 17% decrease), and Colombia (176,661 new cases; 347.2 new cases per 100,000; a 1% increase). The highest numbers of new deaths were also reported from Brazil (13,393 new deaths; 6.3 new deaths per 100,000; a 14% increase), Argentina (4,217 new deaths; 9.3 new deaths per 100,000; a 13% increase), and Colombia (3,725 new deaths; 7.3 new deaths per 100,000; similar to the previous week).

The Eastern Mediterranean Region reported over 191,000 new cases and over 3,300 new deaths, a 5% and a 4% decrease respectively compared to the previous week. While declining weekly case incidence trends have been recorded for the eighth consecutive week, a number of countries across the region are starting to report increasing case and death incidence, including Oman, Tunisia and Afghanistan. The highest numbers of new cases were reported from the Islamic Republic of Iran (59,771 new cases; 71.2 new cases per 100,000; an 11% decrease), Iraq (29,013 new cases; 72.1 new cases per 100,000; a 3% increase), and the United Arab Emirates (14,820 new cases; 149.8 new cases per 100,000; a 6% increase). The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from the Islamic Republic of Iran (970 new deaths; 1.2 new deaths per 100,000; a 19% decrease), Tunisia (488 new deaths; 4.1 new deaths per 100,000; a 30% increase), and Pakistan (444 new deaths; 0.2 new deaths per 100,000; a 13% decrease).

The European Region reported over 332,000 new cases, a 13% decrease when compared to the previous week and a declining trend for the ninth consecutive week. The Region reported over 7,200 new deaths, a 17% decrease when compared to the previous week. While most countries across the Region continue to see decreasing or stabilizing trends, some countries, such as the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and Kyrgyzstan have reported increases in case incidence this week compared to the previous week. The highest numbers of new cases were reported from Russian Federation (82,250 new cases; 56.4 new cases per 100,000; a 31% increase), The United Kingdom (46,825 new cases; 69.0 new cases per 100,000; a 52% increase), and Turkey (42,841 new cases; 50.8 new cases per 100,000; an 8% decrease). The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from Russian Federation (2,643 new deaths; 1.8 new deaths per 100,000; a 1% increase), Germany (612 new deaths; 0.7 new deaths per 100,000; a 25% decrease), and Turkey (600 new deaths; 0.7 new deaths per 100,000; a 25% decrease).

The South-East Asia Region reported over 763,000 new cases, a 27% decrease compared to the previous week. Weekly case incidence has been decreasing sharply for five consecutive weeks, largely driven by decreases in the number of cases in a small number of countries. While the number of newly reported cases continues to decrease in India, Bangladesh has reported an increasing trend in cases for the past four weeks. The Region reported over 26,000 new deaths, a 12% increase when compared to the previous week. The highest numbers of new cases were reported from India (630,650 new cases; 45.7 new cases per 100,000; a 31% decrease), Indonesia (55,320 new cases; 20.2 new cases per 100,000; a 38% increase), and Nepal (20,348 new cases; 69.8 new cases per 100,000; a 34% decrease). The highest numbers of new deaths were also reported from India (23,625 new deaths; 1.7 new deaths per 100,000; a 14% increase), Indonesia (1,267 new deaths; 0.5 new deaths per 100,000; a 5% increase), and Nepal (514 new deaths; 1.8 new deaths per 100,000; an 18% decrease).

The Western Pacific Region reported over 124,000 new cases and over 2,300 new deaths, a 10% and a 7% decrease respectively compared to the previous week. While the region has an overall decreasing trend in cases, some countries, including Fiji, Vietnam and Mongolia are reporting increases and peak numbers of cases. The highest numbers of new cases were reported from the Philippines (46,087 new cases; 42.1 new cases per 100,000; a 1% increase), Malaysia (41,630 new cases; 128.6 new cases per 100,000; a 20% decrease), and Japan (13,499 new cases; 10.7 new cases per 100,000; a 28% decrease). The highest numbers of new deaths were also reported from the Philippines (920 new deaths; 0.8 new deaths per 100,000; a 9% decrease), Malaysia (553 new deaths; 1.7 new deaths per 100,00; a 14% decrease), and Japan (510 new deaths; 0.4 new deaths per 100,000; a 15% decrease).

Looking at these statistics, it is obvious that we have a long way to go before we can safely say that the end is in sight.

Until the next time, Stay Safe.

Total Cases Worldwide – 177,990,474

Total Deaths Worldwide – 3,851,985

Total Recovered Worldwide – 162,498,998

Total Active Cases Worldwide – 11,639,491 (6.5% of the total cases)

Total Closed Cases Worldwide – 166,350,983

Information and resources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19—15-june-2021