Overseas Situation Report Wednesday 16^th June 2021

 

By Mike Evans

 “Opportunity does not knock; it presents itself when you beat down the door.” – Kyle Chandler

In this report we look at the situation in general across the world and highlight some countries where the situation is changing.

We start in Africa. Anyone who thought we were getting the better of the virus after 16 months of the pandemic will certainly have a rethink when they see these figures.

There are 53 countries that report on a daily basis to the WHO with numbers of cases, deaths and active cases, this week we see a very disturbing trend appearing. In Africa in the past week, 31 countries have reported an increase in cases compared to the previous week. Across all of Africa the average increase for the week is 43%. Deaths are also on the increase with an average of 25% more deaths than the previous week.

Yet again it is South Africa which is taking the brunt of the virus, with a weekly increase in cases of 54%. This week they recorded a total of 52,781 new cases compared to 34,232 in the previous week. Looking at deaths, the country had a 46% increase in deaths in the past week compared to the previous week. The official death toll now stands at 57,879.

To make matters worse, South Africa’s Covid-19 vaccine rollout has been hit by further delays as it will have to discard at least 2 million Johnson & Johnson vaccines produced in the country. The vaccines were found by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to be unsuitable for use due to possible contamination of their ingredients at a Baltimore plant. South Africa was expecting to use them to inoculate its health care workers and people aged 60 years and older.

This is the latest setback to South Africa’s vaccine rollout which has so far given shots to just over 1 percent of its 60 million people. Early this year the country rejected about 1 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine it received from the Serum Institute of India after a small, preliminary study found that the vaccine offered minimal protection against mild to moderate cases of the Covid-19 variant that is dominant in South Africa. Those vaccines were sold to the African Union for distribution to other African countries.

To date, the country has given jabs to more than 1.7 million people, including nearly 480,000 health workers who were inoculated as part of a study trial of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

The production of the J&J vaccine at South Africa’s Aspen Pharmacare manufacturing plant in the eastern city of Gqeberha, formerly known as Port Elizabeth, was eagerly awaited to give a much-needed boost to the country’s vaccination drive. The factory has contracted with J&J to produce the vaccine using large batches of the basic ingredients supplied by Johnson & Johnson. The South African plant then blends those components and puts them in vials – a process knowns as “fill and finish.” The South African plant has the capacity to produce about 200 million doses annually of the J&J vaccine and had already manufactured 2 million. But they were produced using ingredients from the Baltimore plant and therefore must not be used, according to the ruling by the FDA and South Africa’s health officials.

The South African Health Products Regulatory Authority issued a statement saying it had “reviewed the data provided by the FDA and has made a decision not to release vaccines produced using the drug substance batches that were not suitable.”

South Africa will now only receive 300,000 doses of the J&J vaccine which have been cleared by the FDA, it said.

Aspen will begin production of new J&J vaccines using fresh, uncontaminated ingredients at its facility this week, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced this week.

The country with the second highest number of cases in Africa, Morocco, has fared slightly better in the past few weeks with just over 7% increase in weekly cases and its death total has decreased by 6%. Figures show a peak in November last year, when the country was seeing over 5,000 cases a day, to now where the average 7-day figure is down to 350 cases.

Still in Africa, Zambia has recorded a rise in cases of 125% in the week compared to last week. Their death toll has also risen by a worrying 197%. Tunisia, Kenya, Uganda, Botswana and the DRC have all reported rises over the current week of cases and with the exception of Kenya their death tolls have also risen.

Meanwhile in Europe, the trend over the past week has been one of reduction in cases across most of mainland Europe. However, there have been a few exceptions fuelled by the variant known as the “Delta” variant. In the UK they have seen case numbers rise by 45% and deaths increased by 12% compared to a week ago. In Russia, the number of cases rose by 35% and deaths rose by 2% compared to the previous week’s figures. Actual numbers are very hard to publish as their testing regime is way behind most other European countries and it has been admitted by their own health minister that the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19 will probably be 3 times the figure they have published.

This week saw Portugal with a 28% rise in cases compared to the previous week and while deaths remain stable there is a concern that in some areas the virus has got out of control and is threatening the opening up of the country.

Of the larger countries in Europe the largest drop in cases has come from the Scandanavian area with Sweden leading the way with a drop of 49% in cases, while Denmark has shown a 47% fall in the same week. Belgium and France have both seen a 40+% drop while a number of mainland countries have seen a 35-40% drop in cases.

It is these sort of statistics that makes Portugal’s figures a cause for concern and it is likely that this may continue to a third wave which many in central Europe experienced earlier this year. Time will tell if Portugal can get through this without too many new cases.

Across the Americas there is good news for the large countries in that the rate of infection is dropping rapidly. Much of the Caribbean Islands, as well as the USA and Canada, have shown a large drop in cases in the past week compared to the previous week. There are a few exceptions, with a number of Central American countries showing increases in cases. Honduras had a 39% increase in cases in the past week, with similar increases from Guatemala, Panama and Cuba. The concern for these last three countries is that their death rates are also on the increase.

Finally, in Asia, where for the past few months the area has been mainly driven by the huge number of cases in India, we are seeing a drop in cases week by week. Overall, Asia has seen a drop of 19% in cases with countries like India showing a 30% drop, although to put it in context they still recorded 573,086 cases last week. However, go back a few weeks and the country was seeing over 400,000 a day so this drop is good news. Indonesia by contrast has recorded a 37% increase in cases this week with a 7% increase in deaths so Asia while seeing a drop is still not out of the woods just yet.

Until the next time, Stay Safe…

Total Cases Worldwide – 177,418,437

Total Deaths Worldwide – 3,838,618

Total Recovered Worldwide – 161,866,135

Total Active Cases Worldwide – 11,713,684 (6.6% of the total cases)

Total Closed Cases Worldwide – 165,704,753

Information and resources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports