Year: 2021

 

One day there will be an earthquake forecast. It’s just not known when

Unlike the sky, the Earth’s interior is not transparent. And that’s why a seismologist like Fernando Carrilho faces very different challenges from colleagues from other departments at the Portuguese Institute of the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA), who can relate the previous day’s forecasts to the clouds they see on the horizon. “There are earthquakes originating from depths of 10, 20, 100 kms or more… and the existing technologies do not allow us to know what is happening in these places”, explains the head of the Geophysics Division at IPMA.

In the 1970s, several scientists tried to find a way to predict earthquakes — but that first impulse has lost much of its force after 20 years. “If I say that there is going to be an earthquake of magnitude 3 or 4 in Lisbon, I could be correct (due to the characteristics of the region). But I cannot know when this earthquake will occur. A forecast must have an instant of occurrence, location and magnitude, otherwise it is not an earthquake forecast”, adds Fernando Carrilho.

The expectation of the last century has failed and recent technological advances have not helped much either. “Tomography scans of the Earth’s interior are already being carried out, but the images do not have much resolution, in addition to requiring very expensive and time-consuming scientific campaigns”, explains Rui Moura, professor at the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Porto.

Given the difficulty in collecting data, some scientists even tried to establish a relationship between earthquakes and changes in electromagnetic fields or radon gas emission. But these studies were also inconclusive. “There are several places with an increase in radon emissions and changes in electromagnetic fields that have not suffered earthquakes”, recalls Fernando Carrilho.

In the absence of a solution, efforts began to focus on mitigation. And Japan, with four thousand seismic stations and sensor networks in the Pacific, is the benchmark in this approach. Seismic waves travel across the ocean floor at speeds of four to seven kilometre per second, but sensor networks “go beyond them” by traveling at the speed of light allowed by fibre optics. Which gives you to issue alerts tens of seconds before the earthquake affects the archipelago, famous for its automation. “Even if it’s three seconds ahead, it makes a difference. It’s enough time to open doors, turn off the gas or for the elevators to stop in the right place automatically”, says Rui Moura.

Mexico and the US already have sensor networks — and there are plans for Portugal to join the “mitigation” club. The project has been developed by IPMA, Instituto de Telecomunicações and Instituto D. Luís, in the LEA consortium. The objective is to take advantage of the replacement of the ring of submarine telecommunications cables that link the continent, Azores and Madeira with sensor cables. Fernando Carrilho believes that the investment pays off, “even with a 10% increase in costs”.

The renovation will have to be completed by 2027, when the current cables expire. “The State Budget already provided for this investment, but it ended up not being approved. It is an urgent decision that will have to be taken soon”, concludes Fernando Carrilho.

Source Expresso

 

28^TH OCTOBER 1856 – 165^TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE INAUGURATION OF THE FIRST RAILWAY LINE IN PORTUGAL

On October 28, 1856, the first section of the railway in Portugal was inaugurated. With a distance of 36 km, it connected Lisbon (Cais dos Soldados) to Carregado. The new means of transport consisted of two locomotives (the “Portugal” and the “Coimbra”) and sixteen carriages. The route to be covered was 36.5 km and took around 40 minutes. The following day, it was open to the public with two round trips per day: Lisbon – Carregado 8:45 am and 4 pm / Carregado – Lisbon 7 am and 2 pm

On the opening day, at 10:00 am, the Royal train, pulled by the Santarém and Coimbra locomotives, followed with King Pedro V on board, as well as the Cardinal Patriarch of Lisbon, to bless the new technology. The guests’ train, with about 9 carriages, was pulled by the Lisbon locomotive.

At the time, the work was presented as a “great icon of regeneration and policy of national progress”, but it was far from being unanimous by the main representatives of national letters at the time. “Almeida Garrett was one of the writers who criticized the introduction of the railway in Portugal, in the 19th century. The author of “Viagens na Minha Terra” considered that the railway “was not the kind of progress that the country needed” and feared that the new means of transport would aggravate the gap between the big cities of the coast and the interior.

165 years later, here we are, benefiting from one of the greatest engineering feats ever made in Portugal, the construction of the railway, carried out by visionaries who went far beyond what had already been imagined and advocated in Portugal. It had its setbacks, as in everything else, the financing, which turned out to be almost entirely private, with the operation of the railway being carried out by private companies

Today the congress will take place at the MNF headquarters, in Entroncamento, in the district of Santarém, organized by the Iberian Association of Railway History (ASIHF), with the collaboration of the Lisbon University Institute (CIES), from the University of Évora (CIDEHUS) and from the Universidade Nova de Lisboa (CIUHCT), with mandatory registration for those who want to participate, according to a note from the museum.

On Thursday, October 28, the day in which, in 1856, the first section of the Portuguese railway between Lisbon and Carregado was inaugurated, the new MNF web page, resulting from the “Museu Nacional Ferroviário” project, becomes available. Welcome All, financed by the Accessible Tourism Support Line, of Turismo de Portugal.

On the same day, at 17:00, a sculptural piece alluding to the Caminho de Ferro, by sculptor João Duarte, will be inaugurated.

The “Joana” Locomotive, with illustration by artist Kruela d’Enfer, will be on display from Friday to Sunday, an initiative included in the European Year of Rail Transport, “which aims to promote the use of the train as a more sustainable means of transport”.

On Saturday, from 10:30 am, there will be a visit to the railway districts of Entroncamento, in a partnership with Infraestruturas de Portugal and the Municipality of Entroncamento, which aims to make known the history and future projects of this heritage.

At 11:00 am, the visit “On Board” will allow you to “know inside several carriages, lounges, locomotives and the Presidential Train, on a journey through 165 years of railway history in Portugal”, an activity that will be repeated on Sunday afternoon, with interpretation in Portuguese sign language.

 

Prime Minister Address to the Nation following Council of Minister’s meeting 23rd September 2021

 

At the end of the Council of Ministers meeting, this Thursday, 23 September, Prime Minister António Costa announced that Portugal is now “in a position to move to the third phase”.

“Today we are very close to where we were in March,” the Prime Minister said, announcing that the incidence is now 140.1 infections per 100,000 inhabitants and the R(t) is 0.81, when in March it was 0.78.

“Portugal is in first place in the percentage of population with complete vaccination,” António Costa announced. At the moment, the vaccination rate is 83.4%.

According to the task force estimates, Portugal is expected to reach 85% of vaccinated Portuguese population over the next week.

From 1 October, the country will evolve from a state of contingency to a state of alert.

From that date, it is foreseen the reopening of bars and nightclubs requiring a digital certificate for access.

Limits on operating hours will end and restaurants will no longer be subject to a maximum limit of people per group.

As for the digital certificate, it is no longer required to enter restaurants, tourist establishments and local accommodation and also in gyms with group classes, casinos, spas and hot springs.

The limitation of capacity in commercial establishments, weddings and christenings and other family events, and the existing restrictions for cultural shows or popular festivals will also disappear.

Besides access to bars and nightclubs, the digital certificate continues to be compulsory for travel by air or sea and for visits to nursing homes or hospitals. The certificate remains compulsory for large cultural, sporting and corporate events.

In this new phase, the mask continues to be mandatory in public transport, nursing homes, hospitals, in the halls of shows or events whenever there is not a two-metre distance between people and also in large commercial surfaces.

Asked why the Government decided to announce the third phase of deconfinement before the goal of 85 per cent vaccination was reached, António Costa began by recalling that on 29 July the “deconfinement programme” was presented, considering the progress of the vaccination process.

“Nothing that we are announcing today is particularly new or unexpected. We had already announced it on 29 July,” he said, adding that restrictions are only “appropriate” according to the situation.

If vaccination is increasing, incidence and the risk of transmission are decreasing, the Prime Minister considers that “nothing justifies” imposing more restrictions “beyond what is necessary”.

“The pandemic is not over and even though we can consider it controlled from the moment we have 85 per cent of the population vaccinated, the risk remains”, António Costa warns.

The Prime Minister recalls that vaccines do not ensure 100% immunity and that there is “a small, very small, ultra-minority of people who refuse to be vaccinated”. “We know that the entire population under 12 years of age is not vaccinated and therefore the risk exists,” stresses the Prime Minister.

Regarding the use of masks and the existence of classes in isolation at the beginning of the school year, the Prime Minister began by recalling that it is no longer mandatory to wear masks in outdoor spaces, such as in the playground.

In addition, the Directorate-General of Health will update the rules on isolation to allow a “response to the problems” that still exist, taking into account “the effective risk of disease transmission in the school population”.

SOURCE: RTP.

 

 

Infarmed meeting Thursday 16th September 2021

 

At the end of the metting

At the end of the presentation, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa took the stage to praise the pandemic vaccination task force, the Ministry of Health and the Portuguese. “Just yesterday at an international meeting where there were 14 European countries, Portugal was by far the one with the highest vaccination rate by far. And I’m talking about the most economically advanced countries in Europe and they correlated this rate with vaccination and the measures taken. It was a race against time that made the difference against”. He then thanked the collaboration between the vice-admiral and the Ministry of Health, which withstood the “wear and tear”. “There was a team and there was leadership.”

Finally, the PR addressed the Portuguese: “And there was a response from the Portuguese, because they were not obliged to be vaccinated. I have known many young people in my family who hesitated to be vaccinated; they and their parents hesitated. Even those who hesitated decided to move forward. This response from the Portuguese is a key to the vaccination process. Nobody forced vaccination in Portugal. The Portuguese realized the importance. It is good to accentuate the tonic accent in those who adhered to the vaccination. This is very impressive and makes a difference compared to other countries where deniers have a greater expression. It is necessary to demonstrate this ultra-minority negative character in Portugal. I don’t know if it causes them tension, but the reality is this: the Portuguese people voted with an expression that there was no other election ”.And voted for vaccination.

A meeting of Infarmed was held on Thursday 16th September 2021.

The meeting, which maintains a semi-attendance format, is attended by the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, the President of the Assembly of the Republic, Ferro Rodrigues, and the Prime Minister, António Costa.

The Minister of Health, Marta Temido, opens the meeting at Infarmed and gives the floor to Dr. Pedro Pinto Leite, head of the Division of Epidemiology and Statistics at DGS, to update the epidemiological situation in Portugal.

Portugal has 195 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with a decreasing trend

Admissions continue to go down

Indicators to be monitored in the autumn-winter phase:

– Incidence, hospitalizations and mortality of the most fragile age groups;

– Seroprevalence of antibodies against influenza and SARS-CoV-2;

– Effectiveness of covid-19 and flu vaccines;

– Ambient temperatures;

– Frequency of other respiratory viruses.

15.48 hrs

Fátima Ventura, director of the Scientific Evaluation Unit at Infarmed, is speaking about the development of vaccines against covid-19.

“Many vaccines continue to be developed. There are 30 vaccines in phase 3 and eight of them in phase 4, which means that they have already been approved. We also have two new contracts still under discussion”, he pointed out.

The specialist also referred that “vaccines also have their own life cycle” and, being “medicines of biological origin, they must follow the centralized procedure, that is, they must be approved by the European Commission”.

An extension of vaccination for children under 12 has not yet been submitted,” but it is expected that “by the end of the year” a request will be submitted for those over five to be eligible for vaccination, the expert noted.

About the booster dose of the Pfizer vaccine, the forecast is that it will be made six months after the second dose, in people over 12 years old.

The contracts signed with vaccine manufacturers provide for the supply of vaccines adapted to the variants of covid-19, explained the expert.

Vaccines still under evaluation:

– Novavax

– CureVac

– Sanofi

– Sputnik V

– Sinovac

16.04 hrs

It is the turn of João Paulo Gomes, a researcher at the Ricardo Jorge Institute, who talks about the variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.

“We have sequenced more than 16,000 virus genomes. The Delta variant completely dominated as of mid-May. We have practically 100% prevalence of this variant in all regions of the country.”

No case of the Beta variant was detected from South Africa, and one case of Gama was detected in Lisbon and Vale do Tejo.

Delta is spread all over the world and more than 95% of the viruses belong to this genetic variant”, said João Paulo Gomes.

According to the expert, in countries with a low rate of vaccination, there is less immunity, therefore, there is more virus circulating and, consequently, more risk of mutations that create the new variants.

The Delta variant has a prevalence between 98% and 100% for eight consecutive weeks. The expert also said that an increase in the number of variants is expected, especially in countries with a low rate of vaccination.

16.20 hrs

Henrique Barros, an epidemiologist at the Institute of Public Health of the University of Porto (ISPUP), is now speaking about tests for covid-19.

“The first big decision we have to make is to make greater surveillance of asymptomatic people, wastewater and surfaces,” explained the expert, advocating greater screening “at the entrance” of different places, activities and events.

We carried out many more tests in 2021 than we did in a similar period in the previous year”, pointed out Henrique Barros, justifying this difference with the fact that this year there was greater mobility of people and more circumstances that caused the infection.

For Henriques Barros, rapid antigen tests are faster, cheaper and have a high specificity.

16.40 hrs

Carla Nunes, a professor at the National School of Public Health (ENSP), is now speaking about social perceptions about covid-19.

“The youngest since May have stood out from other age groups, with an increasing trend”, in relation to the frequency with which they feel agitated, anxious, down or sad due to the measures of the pandemic.

26% of respondents believe that the measures implemented by the Government to combat covid-19 are little or not adequate.

Between July 2020 and January 2021, 85% of people said they would wear the mask even if it was no longer mandatory.

Among the biggest concerns is the mental health of younger people;

Very high values ​​in relation to expectations about the end of restrictions;

New challenges under analysis regarding vaccination and flu.

16.52 hrs

Raquel Duarte, a pulmonologist at the Vila Nova de Gaia Hospital Center, speaks now about the proposed measures for this month.

The specialist recommends the promotion of voluntary and free testing and the maintenance of the obligation to present the digital certificate in circumstances of greater risk.

17.06 hrs

Vice Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo, coordinator of the task force on vaccination against covid-19, begins by stating that the country has reached 86% of first doses and 81.5% of complete vaccination.

“We have to continue, the war is not over yet. But at least, in my perception, the first battle is won”, says Gouveia e Melo.

Stressing that the booster of vaccines arrived in the country between June and August, the vice admiral welcomed the adhesion of young people to the vaccination plan even during vacations: almost 600,000 between 12 and 17 years old have already received a dose , while 329 young people are fully protected with two doses.

And he says he expects the country to reach 85% of full vaccination, starting at the end of September or at the latest in early October. “That’s a lot of good news,” he noted.

Gouveia and Melo also emphasize that the vaccines needed to guarantee the vaccination plan and about 1.1 million vaccines in reserve should arrive in the country in the fourth quarter, given the need for an eventual booster dose for the elderly.

Vaccination plan may extend until March 2022 if the third dose is administered to people over 65 years of age.

The President of the Assembly of the Republic, Ferro Rodrigues, began by saying that he was not going to talk about the deniers who insulted him last Saturday at a restaurant in Lisbon. But he left a warning: “There are issues that are of the rule of law and not merely legal”.

Praising the role of the Ministry of Health, the General Directorate of Health and the Vice-Admiral, Ferro said that the “vaccination process is a real success”, but asked experts for explanations why several elderly people continue to die from covid- 19 even with the two doses of the vaccine.

“We are doing very well, with a very good evolution, but we still have many vaccinated elderly people dying after the two vaccines. In order not to feed these denials, it was very good that there was an answer to this”, he appealed.

 

 

Interview with José Manuel Duarte Costa President ANEPC

 

Welcome us to the sound of “1812 Overture” by Tchaikovsky, who celebrates “the defeat of Napoleon’s troops at the entrance of Moscow”, in the office he has occupied for year and a half as president of the National Emergency Authority and Civil Protection (ANEPC).

José Manuel Duarte Costa, 60 years old, is a military in front of a civil house. He joined the ANEPC in 2018 as national commander. First “it was strange and then he got in,” he admits. At the end of year two he rose to president of ANEPC.

How do you respond to criticism of being a military man in front of a civilian house?

Military are prepared to achieve objectives. When I arrived here, I drew a set of goals that included a new design of the operational structure in the field and decision support methodologies that were urgently needed. I gave this house leadership. I met with all the commanders of fire brigades in the first two months and I got out of office to know the people in the program.

Do you feel like a conciliator?

Those who have these responsibilities cannot be sectarian, factious or protagonist. We have to be bridge builders, reach consensus and open doors for discussion. The backbone of Civil Protection are the volunteer firefighters and I have established a good relationship with the League and with Commander Jaime Marta Soares.

You must be the first president of the ANEPC that is not criticized by the president of the League.

We discuss frankly and fairly and we try to find a compromise. The winners are the institutions and, above all, the Portuguese

What has changed since 2017 as among the failures identified by the Independent Technical Commission was the lack of coordination and lack of professionalism by the forces on the ground?

The reports that followed the 2017 fires identified a set of goals that had to be achieved to improve the system in terms of structural prevention, of surveillance and of combat. The latest report by the Observatory (OTI) does not make major reproofs to the civil protection authority, maybe because it was easier to make the changes here. What still needs to be done is at the prevention level, that is, the land registers, the forest management and land consolidation to endow the territory with a more resilient and attractive forest in terms of economic production.

Emphasize two or three things that have changed in these four years?

A Changed the SMS-based population alert system; the Safe Villages Safe People program was created, which makes these populations more resilient; we started to have thermal imaging of the theatre of operations and a whole technology to support the decision of who is in the command of operations.

Q Are the SIRESP failures over?

There was a lot of work from ANEPC with SIRESP, SA to solve the problems. SIRESP has been a key tool for the geolocation. The capacity of the network with broadband and connection to satellite was doubled, and generators were used for the case of antenna current failures and more mobile antennas were acquired.

How do you assess this year’s fires?

We had half of the occurrences and about 65% less burned area compared to the last ten years. And if we take 2017 out of these numbers, we have 56% less burned area. We reduced the ignitions by about 50% but we still have a high number: from 1 of January to August 31 we had about seven thousand occurrences and we managed to stop 98% of the fires almost at the start. There were 140 fires left with the potential to transform themselves into large fires…

Two of these were those of Castro Marim and Monchique. What is the reason for having larger fires in the Algarve?

It has to do with the weather conditions and the type of vegetation very dry and solid in the Algarve, with the capacity to release very high energy. In Castro Marim nearly six thousand hectares were burned, but it could have been 20 thousand hectares burned, so it’s good success rate despite being terrible for the environment and for the people who lost their homes and possessions.

Did the weather help?

A Yes, but weather cannot be a critical success factor. In 2019 and 2020 we had the same rates of performance and it was very complicated years, with higher temperatures and higher dryness rates in the territory and we were able to handle it, we and all the agents in the system. Today, fires release a much higher energy than they did before. I object to people thinking that, with fewer occurrences, we can have a smallest deployment capacity.

The Court of Auditors (Tribunal de Contas) and AGIF have talked about the need to present cost-benefit accounts about each fire operation. Why don’t these accounts show up?

We are working, in coordination with AGIF, on a good governance of the system so that, together with various entities, we can do this presentation of accounts. We know how much the device costs, the problem is knowing the cost of the burnt area and the cost of what we avoided being burned.

The investment made in prevention has been brought closer to what it is made in combat. But the combat is more visible, right?

I think it’s almost halfway through. I would even say that it should be 99% for prevention and 1% for combat. The solution to large fires is not in combat. Combat is more visible and produces security faster. But the effective safety of people, of the environment and animals we can only achieve with prevention, planning forestry, making the forest economically viable for the populations. That work is being done, but it takes time. While this hiatus unfolds of time we have to have a combat system that can fill the gaps that prevention has.

The lack of professionalism of firefighters is also criticized. Is that changing?

A .The national school of firefighters is extremely professional. Portugal sets a great example to other countries in the Mediterranean basin with this array of volunteer firefighters, an unshakable force for civil protection. And we have a special force of very specialized firefighters who work as the regime’s protection guard.

We are a country vulnerable to extreme events aggravated by the climate crisis, such as floods, rising sea water levels, storms. Are we prepared to face them? What are you afraid of?

I fear everything I can’t control. And there’s a lot that I can’t control. But we have teams prepared to act to several occurrences. For example, in the floods from Mondego we were able to predict the risk areas and we articulate with the municipalities and with the Portuguese Environment Agency to evacuate populations from the flood areas and control discharges from the dams and the breakage of dikes to contain the avalanche of water. And there was zero casualties.

Q Would we be prepared for an event like the torrential rains that devastated Germany?

Nobody is prepared for extreme events. The work that the Germany had done was not enough and now they are reviewing their protocols. We are preparing ourselves for any situation that may occur.

If an earthquake like the one in 1755 happened tomorrow we would be prepared?

An earthquake that occurs in the same location and with the same intensity as that of 1755 takes ten minutes to reach Lisbon, and the body of water arrives in 30 minutes. You can’t evacuate two millions of people in ten minutes. There are emergency plans to evacuate populations from the Baixa Pombalina (downtown Lisbon) to higher locations in Lisbon. For much well prepared as we were, an earthquake like the one in 1755 would be too complicated.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The performance of firefighters in the Algarve Castro Marim fire  questioned by some affected residents

 

The role of firefighters in the Castro Marim fire, which broke out on August 16, is questioned by some populations, but the Civil Protection guarantees that the plan prepared allowed it to be controlled even with adverse weather conditions.

Inhabitants of Cortelha, Pisa of Barro de Cima or Pego dos Negros in the municipality of Casto Marim, in the Algarve, complain to Lusa that they were not supported by the firefighters, either because they did not respond to direct appeals or because they showed up too late.

Manuel Pereira, accuses the firefighters of “little or nothing having done” in Cortelha and claims that there were 12 fire engines in a square “just over 100 meters away” and “let this house burn”, he told Lusa on the day the fire was reported to have been extinguished as it pointed towards the dwelling.

“They scored zero and I was here at the time. They were lying in the cars. Everything was on fire, taken by the flames”, he advanced, referring that they replied that “they had no order to go out”.

In Pisa, Barro de Cima and Pego do Negros are accused of not having appeared or having only done so “hours after the fire had passed”, as an inhabitant revealed to Lusa.

“We called the fire department and nobody showed up, the fire arrived at eight in the evening and the first [fire brigade] car at one in the morning. They were standing down there and did nothing. The guys asked for help and they said they had no order to put out the fire”, says Ricardo Neves.

Contacted by Lusa, the Regional Commander of the Algarve of the National Emergency and Civil Protection Authority says he does not comment on specific cases he does not know about, but accepts the criticisms and requests that they be sent to him so that they can “analyse and find out why people weren’t there”.

Vítor Vaz Pinto classifies fire-fighting as “exceptional”, since it was controlled without a window of opportunity “from a meteorological point of view” and the effort was “all directed to safeguarding “people, their property and the environment”.

“I regret the loss that people have had, the work of a lifetime, sometimes generations, that they lose from one moment to the next, but they have to realize that it is not possible to have a firefighter next to every tree, a GNR soldier next to each house and a helicopter in each parish”, he assumes.

The person in charge also wanted to clarify that, “contrary to what was said”, when the fire was considered to be under control, in the middle of the morning of the 16th, no means were withdrawn, but rather “differentiated means were projected”.

“Before there was reactivation, it was when heavy air means came out”, he emphasizes.

Explaining that a fire is considered dominated when “its progression is stopped”, he adds that this does not mean that there cannot be reactivations, as in this case, where there were “six reactivations”.

“Five were promptly defeated by the means that were in place and the sixth one was not possible because, when it occurs, it is out of combat capacity and it coincided at a time when there were no air resources in the theatre of operations to stop its progression”, sustains.

The commander also clarifies that the strategy to fight this fire was to “stop the progression of the fire head” as soon as there was a physical window on the ground that would give “security to the means and resources to be able to act”.

At the same time, they sought to “support the two flanks with 15 kilometres each, because otherwise the fire would reach 29,000 hectares”, he warns.

It is then up to each level – strategic, tactical and manoeuvre – to implement this plan on the ground, fulfilling the mission entrusted to it “in the way it sees fit”.

“People sometimes think that the Relief Operations Commander is the one who gives direct orders to the firefighter to open or close the hose, that’s not what happens,” he concludes.

The fire broke out at 01:05 on the 16th of August, was considered to be under control at 10:20, but it ended up reactivating around 16:00 and was only re-suppressed one day later, in the afternoon of the 17th.

According to the Copernicus Emergency Management Service of the European Union (EU), the fire caused a total of 5,957 hectares of burnt area (2,774 hectares of agricultural areas) in the municipalities of Castro Marim, Vila Real de Santo António and Tavira, in the Algarve, with the autarchies carrying out a full survey of the damages.

(Source: Postal do Algarve)

 

Covid-19 Pandemic reduced birth rates especially in Portugal, Hungary, Italy and Spain

Newsroom, 31 Aug 2021 (Lusa) – The pandemic has been accompanied by a significant drop in gross birth rates in high-income countries, with particularly steep declines in southern Europe: Italy (-9.1%), Spain (-8 .4%) and Portugal (-6.6%).

This is the main conclusion of a study conducted by the Bocconi University of Italy and published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, using numerical models and analyzing data from 22 countries.

To better assess the effect of this disease, the study authors collected monthly data from January 2016 to March 2021 from a total of 22 high-income countries.

The pandemic aggravated the declining birth rates in rich countries, with Italy seeing the sharpest decline in 2020. There were 16,000 fewer births and the country saw its birth rate reduce by 9.1%, according to a study of the Bocconi University of Milan published in PNAS magazine.

The study covered 22 countries (including Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, USA, Germany, France, Spain, Hungary, Iceland, Israel).

“Countries like Norway, Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, where there is more generous welfare and individuals are less afraid of employment and income, there has been no decline in births,” study author Letizia Mencarini told Ansa news agency.

“Countries like Italy, Portugal and the USA, on the other hand, have had more repercussions due to the economic and employment uncertainties linked to the pandemic” she added. According to Mencarini, the pandemic further exacerbated the socio-economic inequalities especially among the youngest, who are more likely to postpone starting a family.

According to the models of the study, “which take into account the fertility trends already underway in the various countries (caused for example by a reduction in potential mothers), the most significant falls in births occurred in Italy (- 9.1% of born compared to 2019), Hungary (- 8.5%), Spain (- 8.4%), Portugal (- 6.6%)” Mencarini said.

For Italy, the months with the fewest births were December 2020 (3,500 fewer births compared to December 2019) and January 2021 (5,000 fewer births), with a decline in conception linked to the first pandemic wave.

While the average drop in births in the other months of 2020 compared to the same month in 2019 was 3%, in December it was 21%, and the same in January 2021.

Pandemics are a key driver of changes in human populations, affecting both mortality and birth rates.

The biggest pandemic of the last century, the so-called Spanish flu (1918-1919), caused birth rates in the United States to drop from 23 per 1,000 population in 1918 to 20 per 1,000 in 1919 (-13%).

Comparable effects were observed in countries such as the UK, India, Japan and Norway.

Preliminary data now suggest that the covid-19 pandemic has lowered the birth rate in high-income countries.

Furthermore, Belgium, Austria and Singapore also showed a significant decline in gross birth rates, according to this analysis.

However, the authors stress that the available data only provide information about the first wave and therefore “only give an idea of ​​the global decline during the pandemic”.

The data provide information on various phases of the first wave and indicate that in some countries, such as France and Spain, a recovery in birth rates was observed in March 2021 compared to June 2020.

For these countries, the month of June 2020 marked the point at which the first wave of the pandemic diminished, thus possibly reflecting a reversal.

According to the authors, the results reveal the impact of the pandemic on population dynamics and may have political implications for childcare, housing and the labour market.

 

Rural Fires – Provisional data shows that burned area more than doubled in two weeks

 

Lisbon, Aug 30, 2021 (Lusa) – Fires have already caused nearly 26 thousand hectares of burnt area in 2021, according to provisional data available on the website of the Institute for Nature Conservation and Forests (ICNF), which show an increase greater than 60% in two weeks.

In total, there have been 6,620 rural fires to date, resulting in 25,867 hectares of burned area, mostly in bush areas (72%), but also in forest stands (21%) and agriculture (7%).

The data available on the ICNF website, referring to the period between January 1st and August 30th, are provisional, but reveal that in just two weeks the burnt area more than doubled, increasing 62.5% since August 15th.

According to the fourth provisional report on rural fires of 2021, released today by the ICNF, to that date 5,658 rural fires had caused 16,179 hectares of burnt area (65% in scrubland, 25% in settlements and 10% in agriculture).

“The year 2021 presents, until the 15th of August, the lowest value in the number of fires and the second lowest value of burnt area, since 2011,” says the document, specifying that 47% fewer rural fires were registered and 75% less burned area.

However, these data does not yet include the rural fire that broke out in the municipality of Odemira on August 18, nor the one that started in Castro Marim two days earlier and that consumed thousands of hectares.

The most recent ICNF report also indicates that about 25% of the fires registered up to August 15th happened during the month of July, but it was in March that the occurrences caused a greater burned area (6,711 hectares, which corresponds to 41% of the total area burned this year).

The majority of rural fires (81%) were occurrences with less than one hectare of burnt area, with 26 large fires having been recorded to date, resulting in more than 100 hectares of burnt area.

By district, Porto (865), Aveiro (493) and Braga (468) stand out with the highest number of fires. In the burned area, the most affected were Vila Real (3,627 hectares, about 22% of the total burned area), Faro (2,305 hectares, 14%) and Braga (1,877 hectares, 12%).

“Of the total of 5,658 rural fires verified in the year 2021, 4,238 were investigated (75% of the total number of fires – responsible for 91% of the total burned area)”, adds the report, noting that the investigation allowed the attribution of a cause for 2,987.

The most frequent causes were the negligent use of fire (57%) and arson (17%), with emphasis on the burning of forest or agricultural leftovers, burning of piles of forest or agricultural leftovers (13%) and fires for the management of pasture for cattle (17%).