Month: August 2021

 

Covid-19 Pandemic reduced birth rates especially in Portugal, Hungary, Italy and Spain

Newsroom, 31 Aug 2021 (Lusa) – The pandemic has been accompanied by a significant drop in gross birth rates in high-income countries, with particularly steep declines in southern Europe: Italy (-9.1%), Spain (-8 .4%) and Portugal (-6.6%).

This is the main conclusion of a study conducted by the Bocconi University of Italy and published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, using numerical models and analyzing data from 22 countries.

To better assess the effect of this disease, the study authors collected monthly data from January 2016 to March 2021 from a total of 22 high-income countries.

The pandemic aggravated the declining birth rates in rich countries, with Italy seeing the sharpest decline in 2020. There were 16,000 fewer births and the country saw its birth rate reduce by 9.1%, according to a study of the Bocconi University of Milan published in PNAS magazine.

The study covered 22 countries (including Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, USA, Germany, France, Spain, Hungary, Iceland, Israel).

“Countries like Norway, Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, where there is more generous welfare and individuals are less afraid of employment and income, there has been no decline in births,” study author Letizia Mencarini told Ansa news agency.

“Countries like Italy, Portugal and the USA, on the other hand, have had more repercussions due to the economic and employment uncertainties linked to the pandemic” she added. According to Mencarini, the pandemic further exacerbated the socio-economic inequalities especially among the youngest, who are more likely to postpone starting a family.

According to the models of the study, “which take into account the fertility trends already underway in the various countries (caused for example by a reduction in potential mothers), the most significant falls in births occurred in Italy (- 9.1% of born compared to 2019), Hungary (- 8.5%), Spain (- 8.4%), Portugal (- 6.6%)” Mencarini said.

For Italy, the months with the fewest births were December 2020 (3,500 fewer births compared to December 2019) and January 2021 (5,000 fewer births), with a decline in conception linked to the first pandemic wave.

While the average drop in births in the other months of 2020 compared to the same month in 2019 was 3%, in December it was 21%, and the same in January 2021.

Pandemics are a key driver of changes in human populations, affecting both mortality and birth rates.

The biggest pandemic of the last century, the so-called Spanish flu (1918-1919), caused birth rates in the United States to drop from 23 per 1,000 population in 1918 to 20 per 1,000 in 1919 (-13%).

Comparable effects were observed in countries such as the UK, India, Japan and Norway.

Preliminary data now suggest that the covid-19 pandemic has lowered the birth rate in high-income countries.

Furthermore, Belgium, Austria and Singapore also showed a significant decline in gross birth rates, according to this analysis.

However, the authors stress that the available data only provide information about the first wave and therefore “only give an idea of ​​the global decline during the pandemic”.

The data provide information on various phases of the first wave and indicate that in some countries, such as France and Spain, a recovery in birth rates was observed in March 2021 compared to June 2020.

For these countries, the month of June 2020 marked the point at which the first wave of the pandemic diminished, thus possibly reflecting a reversal.

According to the authors, the results reveal the impact of the pandemic on population dynamics and may have political implications for childcare, housing and the labour market.

 

Rural Fires – Provisional data shows that burned area more than doubled in two weeks

 

Lisbon, Aug 30, 2021 (Lusa) – Fires have already caused nearly 26 thousand hectares of burnt area in 2021, according to provisional data available on the website of the Institute for Nature Conservation and Forests (ICNF), which show an increase greater than 60% in two weeks.

In total, there have been 6,620 rural fires to date, resulting in 25,867 hectares of burned area, mostly in bush areas (72%), but also in forest stands (21%) and agriculture (7%).

The data available on the ICNF website, referring to the period between January 1st and August 30th, are provisional, but reveal that in just two weeks the burnt area more than doubled, increasing 62.5% since August 15th.

According to the fourth provisional report on rural fires of 2021, released today by the ICNF, to that date 5,658 rural fires had caused 16,179 hectares of burnt area (65% in scrubland, 25% in settlements and 10% in agriculture).

“The year 2021 presents, until the 15th of August, the lowest value in the number of fires and the second lowest value of burnt area, since 2011,” says the document, specifying that 47% fewer rural fires were registered and 75% less burned area.

However, these data does not yet include the rural fire that broke out in the municipality of Odemira on August 18, nor the one that started in Castro Marim two days earlier and that consumed thousands of hectares.

The most recent ICNF report also indicates that about 25% of the fires registered up to August 15th happened during the month of July, but it was in March that the occurrences caused a greater burned area (6,711 hectares, which corresponds to 41% of the total area burned this year).

The majority of rural fires (81%) were occurrences with less than one hectare of burnt area, with 26 large fires having been recorded to date, resulting in more than 100 hectares of burnt area.

By district, Porto (865), Aveiro (493) and Braga (468) stand out with the highest number of fires. In the burned area, the most affected were Vila Real (3,627 hectares, about 22% of the total burned area), Faro (2,305 hectares, 14%) and Braga (1,877 hectares, 12%).

“Of the total of 5,658 rural fires verified in the year 2021, 4,238 were investigated (75% of the total number of fires – responsible for 91% of the total burned area)”, adds the report, noting that the investigation allowed the attribution of a cause for 2,987.

The most frequent causes were the negligent use of fire (57%) and arson (17%), with emphasis on the burning of forest or agricultural leftovers, burning of piles of forest or agricultural leftovers (13%) and fires for the management of pasture for cattle (17%).

 

 

 

A fire broke out in Castro Marim. Algarve around 0100 hrs on 16th August 2021

Safe Communities Portugal in providing information and updates about the fire which can be downloaded from a Major Incident page we have set up for this purpose. Download here for latest information.

Also on our Facebook page

 

 

 

TODAY’S RURAL FIRE RISK – MONDAY 16TH AUGUST 2021

 

PLEASE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH SITUATION OF ALERT PREVENTION MEASURES BELOW

Today taking into account the FWI, there is an increase in fire risk compared to yesterday, with around 45% of the mainland at MAXIMUM, (nearly 100 municipalities).

The Rural Fire Index (FWI) (determining how quickly fire start and spread), shows around 55% of the mainland at EXTREME level, 64 and above, (the whole of the south and centre).  Eight districts are currently at YELLOW level high temperature warning and Faro District (Algarve) at ORANGE.

CENTRE

The centre region is at higher risk than yesterday, being MAXIMUM HIGH risk. Forecast minimum relative humidity (RH) levels are from an extremely low 8% to 22% higher in the west, (similar to yesterday). Maximum forecast air temperatures are lower than yesterday, ranging from 33C to 39C. FWI EXTREME. Winds moderate from the NW/N quadrants.

THE NORTH EAST

At similar to yesterday, with municipalities at MAXIMUM risk. Minimum relative humidity forecast from a low 12% to around 21%, higher than yesterday, with forecast maximum air temperatures, ranging 32C to 37C – similar. FWI EXTREME Moderate winds from the N/NW/NE quadrants.

ALGARVE

The Algarve shows a similar risk compared to yesterday with eight municipalities at MAXIMUM risk and four at VERY HIGH. Minimum relative humidity levels are similar to yesterday from 8% to 18% but higher in west coast. Maximum air temperatures, ranging from 37C to 39C, lower. (Slightly cooler in west coast municipalities. Winds mainly moderate from the north.

TAKE EXTRA CARE.

WINDS (GENERALLY)

Light to moderate wind (up to 30 km/h) from the northern quadrant, sometimes strong (up to 40 km/h) in the Algarve mountains, gradually becoming moderate to strong (25 to 45 km/h) from the beginning of the afternoon, especially in the western coastal strip and in the highlands with gusts up to 60 km/h. With these take EXTRA CARE TODAY

RURAL FIRES YESTERDAY

There was around nearly 110 rural fires yesterday a large increase, with the highest in in Porto, Braga, Lisbon, Aveiro and Faro.

FOLLOW THE RULES IN THE CHART AND PREVENT FIRES Situation of Alert measures here

IN THE EVENT OF A FIRE FIRST ACTION IS TO CALL 112 IMMEDIATELY AS EVERY SECOND COUNTS

SHARE THIS INFORMATION AND BY DOING SO HELP PREVENT FIRES

Monitor fires here:

 

A MARKED INCREASE SHOWN IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAYS FWI MAP (RIGHT)

Determining the risk of the spreading and behaviour of rural fires – the Rural Fire Index (FWI)

Today’s FWI map shows a VERY HIGH level for 30% of the mainland in the range 50.1 to 64 (brown) and around 25%, the centre and parts of Lower Alentejo at EXTREME 64 and over (dark brown)

The FWI Rural Fire Index determines how quickly a fire will start and spread and comprises the following six indices that quantify the effects of fuel moisture and wind on fire behaviour.

The increase in each of these components corresponds to an increased fire hazard. Given the windy conditions today we highlight the following two:

FFMC (Fine Fuel Moisture Index) – represents the moisture content of dead thin, fast-drying fuels, providing a good indicator of their degree of flammability. ISI (Initial Propagation Index) – results from the combination of the FFMC and the intensity of the wind, representing the initial rate of fire propagation, without including the influence of varying amounts of fuel. Others include the DMC (Humus Index); DC (Drought Index) and BUI (Available Fuel Index).

A “Very Extreme” Fire Danger Class was introduced in June 2021 to provide discrimination about the level of fire danger in extensive areas that were initially classified at “Extreme” Fire Danger in the Mediterranean region during the summer months. The “Very Extreme” class include areas with FWI values above 70. Some areas will reach these levels

BE AWARE AND NOTE

Many of the major fires have started in similar situations.

It is important to be aware of this as it helps determine the risk to yourself and property should a fire break out in your area.