Month: February 2021

Virologist Pedro Simas said this Sunday that Portugal is experiencing an abrupt reduction in the number of new contagions, resulting from confinement, which could put the country among one of the best in the world to control the third wave of the pandemic.

“We were one of the best in the world in the first confinement, the worst at the origin of the third wave and we will be one of the countries in the world that soon manages to control the third wave because, in fact, there was a fantastic adhesion to the confinement and the result is in sight “, he said in statements to the Lusa agency.

The viruses, he said, are transmitted by droplets and if movements with confinement, wearing masks and social distance are inhibited, the transmission chains are abruptly interrupted.

“This was perfectly predictable and depended on good behaviour and adherence to total confinement and what I see is that there was fantastic adherence and the result is in sight because biology is factual. If there are no contacts and people adhere to the rules, the viruses cannot be transmitted. It is in our hands. That’s why the decrease curve is so steep “, stressed the virologist at the Molecular Institute of the University of Lisbon

Pedro Simas said that from January 28 to February 6 Portugal went from an average of 12,890 cases to 7,270 cases.

“It is fantastic. It is being performed so well that after two weeks there has been a significant decrease in the number of deaths. On January 31, we had an average of 288 deaths in the last seven days and now we have 253. There are also here, a trend and this means that we have good health services and that, despite the difficulties, the National Health Service is performing well. We only have reason to be proud”, he said.

The closure of schools was, for Pedro Simas, decisive for this inflection of the growth curve. “The closure of schools was decisive because it is a clear message for Portuguese society. When schools are closed it is because the matter is serious,” he said, adding that having schools open implied a lot of adult movement.

The virologist warns that it is now very important to learn from the past and realize that it is necessary to follow the rules so that Portugal does not run a greater risk of the appearance of a fourth wave, remembering that it was the relaxation of the measures before, during and after Christmas that led to the third wave of the virus.

“We have already understood the dynamics of the virus. How can we control it? At the level of society by adhering to the rules of physical distance, the use of the mask and inhibiting unnecessary contacts as much as possible”, he stressed. The combination of these factors, he argued, will make a difference in order to gain freedom, keeping the level of infections at acceptable levels.

Pedro Simas reinforces the need for caution in the lack of definition, arguing that it should only be considered when the country reaches between 700 and 1400 new cases per day. “It would be great and we would be at a great security level where, following the rules, we were able to control and avoid a fourth wave,” he said, noting that it is possible that within two to three weeks Portugal will achieve these ideal security values ​​for making decision about the deflation.

“(The lack of definition) is when the numbers allow because they are a direct effect of our behaviour and directly reflect whether we are in control or not,” he said. Pedro Simas also pointed out that an exponential decrease in the number of infections is happening in the world.

“From February until now it has been going up all over the world until the 23rd of December. Between 23 and 28 it went down a little, going up again until January 11th. From January 11th to February 6th it has always been going down. There has never been such a big decrease worldwide “, he said, pointing this out as a positive note, but stressing that there is concern about a possible fourth wave, which is why it is necessary and decisive to be careful in the post confinement.

Mathematician and Professor Henrique Oliveira talks about the role of confinement, the prospects for the coming weeks and the effect of vaccination.

Henrique Oliveira, a mathematician and professor at the Instituto Superior Técnico, considers that the confinement is taking effect, especially since the schools closed, stressing that the Rt (transmissibility index) is below 1 across the country.

“We are reaching the peak in Lisbon and Vale do Tejo and the numbers are very favorable,” said the professor, adding that in this respect he is more optimistic than the Minister of Health, Marta Temido.

However, Henrique Oliveira argues that caution is necessary because the pressure on healthcare will remain, even after the peak is exceeded.

REDUCTION IN THE NUMBER OF FATALITIES

According to projections, the number of fatalities will start to fall, after a very high peak of deaths by Covid-19 has been reached.

“Lethality went up immensely in the month of January and went up a lot in layers above 80 years old,” he said in an interview with SIC Notícias.

The professor believes that the number of deaths will start to fall very quickly and, from the end of February, it is estimated that Portugal will be at the same level as Christmas, “if all goes well”.

The calculations point to a much smaller number of fatalities between 15 and 22 March. It will be at that time that it will be considered whether or not to open the country.

“With the January and February mortality levels, it would be very imprudent to open in an uncontrolled way”, underlines Henrique Oliveira.

CONFINEMENT IS HALTING VARIANTS

Henrique Oliveira says that the confinement is being very effective, even with regard to the transmission of new variants of the virus. There is still no data on the Manaus variant, but there is already scientific evidence on the British and South African variants.

“All foreign variants, English, South African and even Manaus, are not being devastating in the face of this confinement. They are being dominated”, says the professor.

VACCINATION STILL WON’T HAVE AN IMPACT IN FEBRUARY

Vaccination in February will not yet have an effect on the numbers, says Henrique Oliveira. However, if it is possible to vaccinate 80% of people over 80 during February and March, the protection will be noticeable significantly, allowing the month of April to be an opening month.

“I want to show a sign of optimism, we will have summer. From June onwards, we will be in a very favourable situation, we will be in a kind of temporary group immunity”, says the professor, remembering that this is only possible if contacts are reduced and the use of a mask continues to be widespread.

In a positive perspective, which requires some prudence, tourism will be able to plan activities in the summer, says the mathematician.

We want society to open up and be able to recover from there without limits”, he concluded.

“For the pandemic to be eradicated, it must be eradicated in the European Union and on a global scale, which is a huge effort”, underlined the prime minister.

The Prime Minister also underlined that to speed up the vaccination process, the industry has to increase the vaccine production capacity. António Costa stressed that the pharmaceutical companies have already committed to fulfill this objective.

For the head of government, it is essential to vaccinate the majority of the population in order to return to normality: “We will only return to normality in our lives when we are all vaccinated or, at least, 70% of the population, reaching group immunity”.

“It is essential that each one waits serenely for his or her turn to be vaccinated”, he recalled with the indication that the call for the vaccine will arrive via SMS or letter.

The Prime Minister also said today that one thing is the turmoil of political debate and another is reality, praising the joint work of the National Health Service and the private and social sectors in combating covid-19.

This position was transmitted by António Costa at the end of a visit to the new CUF Tejo Hospital, in Alcântara, during which he attended the vaccination process of health professionals in the private sector and was accompanied by the Minister of Health, Marta Temido.

“I want to leave a word of thanks here, because one thing is the turmoil of political debate and another thing is reality. Since March we have been in contact, we have worked together, and the National Health Service (SNS) and private hospitals and of the social sector, or of the Armed Forces, have been mobilized whenever necessary to respond to this pandemic situation “, maintained the leader of the executive.

Speaking after brief speeches by the chairman of the CUF group’s board of directors, Salvador de Mello, and the Minister of Health, António Costa stressed that the country is experiencing the most critical moment in the fight against the epidemic, being also “the moment when this collaboration between sectors proved to be more necessary and, equally, more effective was demonstrated “.

“We have 53 agreements across the country with institutions from the private and social sectors, 13 of which, specifically, for the treatment of covid-19 patients. At the time when each bed is absolutely essential, the existence of an additional 300 beds made available by the private sector on the whole it is very important “, stressed the executive leader.

The prime minister also pointed out that there will be more than 700 beds made available by the private sector, reinforcing “a set of conventions” for the care of non-covid-19 patients who need treatment.

School closures, which led to less mobility, and the more restrictive measures imposed by the Government helped a faster drop in the transfer rate, show estimates from the Covid19 Insights project

The closure of schools, and the consequent decrease in mobility, and the more restrictive measures imposed by the Government from mid-January helped a faster drop in the transmissibility rate of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, making the effect of the current confinement very close to the effect achieved with the confinement made in March and April last year. Within a week it was possible to reduce the transmissibility of the virus by 35% to 40%. It is still early to relax, but this greater compliance with the measures is beginning to reveal some impact on the covid-19 numbers. Although hospitalizations and deaths remain high.

“To evaluate a containment, what matters is to measure its effect. The effectiveness of a confinement is seen by the drop in the rate of transmissibility. This rate is the product of two elements: contact rate – mainly represented by mobility – and the likelihood of transmission – represented by the characteristics of the virus and the protective barriers we use ”, explains to PUBLIC Pedro Simões Coelho, coordinator of the Covid19 Insights project, an initiative by NOVA IMS and COTEC.

To measure the effect of the current confinement, the reference was the average speed of the drop in transmissibility of the virus in March and April last year. “We estimate that at the beginning of this confinement, this reduction in the transmissibility of the virus took place at a speed that would be 30% of the speed that was made in March and April. In other words, it was 30% of the effect achieved in the first confinement”, says the specialist, referring to a period that goes from the second week of January to the closing of schools. From that date on, “this effect began and has been progressively intensified and at that date we estimate that the effect of this confinement is about 90% of that of March / April “.

What has changed to achieve this result, even though since the beginning of January there has already been some reduction in the mobility that people have assumed, anticipating the confinement decreed by the Government? “Until January 17th, the presence in workplaces was still very strong. There was already some drop compared to the reference level – average mobility in January and February 2020, when there was still no pandemic – from -11% to -26%, but now the drop is more than 40% ”, begins by explaining .

It is this change that now allows for more favorable estimates than those obtained two weeks ago. Thus, the peak of prevalence is expected to happen these days, with about 182 thousand active cases. This figure should drop to 160 thousand on 7 February. Also for that day, the scenarios point to the existence of 5900 people with hospitalized covid, of which 825 are in intensive care units. The maximum number of hospitalizations will have been reached on day 1 and the maximum in intensive care is likely to happen by the end of the week. As for deaths, the maximum will have been reached on 30 January with about 300 deaths per day.

But the country is still far from breathing relief, even though the Rt (transmission risk) is slightly below 1. According to estimates, this should only drop below 0.8 in the second half of this month and it will be for that reason that the security barrier of 5000 new daily cases should be reached. “The value of 50 new cases per 100 thousand inhabitants has been used by many as a barrier below which it is possible to have an adequate traceability of the cases and to make an identification of the transmission chains. And, consequently, we have to do this as soon as possible”, states Pedro Simões Coelho.

The president of the Scientific Council of NOVA IMS also points out that the estimated number of hospitalizations, especially in intensive care, shows how the National Health Service (SNS) is close to its maximum capacity, since the same criteria of previous phases were used of the pandemic, estimates would point to higher numbers of patients hospitalized at around 200 in intensive care.

“This is one of the reasons why confinement needs to be continued in this severe way for some time. It is essential to maintain or intensify [the drop in transmissibility] for some time to avoid this situation of rupture and try to prevent this excess mortality from continuing ”, he reinforces, stating that if there is capacity to control transmission chains and lower numbers it will be possible to progressively suspect. But always evaluating this impact so that a new growth of contagions can be stopped.

The Judicial Police of Leiria detained, on Monday morning, a man suspected of killing a Brazilian citizen, on January 31, in the area of ​​Caldas da Rainha.

The 40-year-old victim was known to the suspect and was said to have been assaulted with a piercing object in the chest area, “following disagreements at his residence”, informs the Judiciary Police, in the statement sent this Tuesday to the newsrooms, in which it reports the suspicion of a crime of qualified homicide. The citizen, of Brazilian nationality, was still rescued but ended up dying in the hospital.

“The knowledge of the facts was acquired by the PSP, which activated the intervention of the Judiciary Police. Investigative investigations were carried out immediately, and relevant evidence was collected, which led to the arrest of the suspect,” the note reads.

The detainee, 49 years old Portuguese, a logger by profession, will be presented to the court for questioning and enforcement of coercion measures.

The Minister of Health, Marta Temido, made the weekly status of the evolution of the vaccination plan against Covid-19, after the information meeting with the plan’s task force.

Portugal today received 86 580 vaccines from Pfizer / Biontec, totaling about 483 thousand doses from this consortium, and 19 200 from Moderna, of which 10 200 were to have been delivered last week, but were received yesterday, said the Minister, adding that «two deliveries from Moderna and three from Pfizer are scheduled for February”.

Of the 86 500 doses received today, “23 400 were sent to the autonomous regions of the Azores and Madeira, of which 11700 were for each region”.

“Two batches of the newly approved AstraZeneca vaccine are expected to be delivered,” said the Minister, adding that deliveries scheduled for February 9 and 19 total 200,000 vaccines, out of a total of 6.8 million in the contractual doses.

The Minister also referred that the European Medicines Agency approved “the conditional authorization for placing on the market for the Astra-Zeneca vaccine, and Portugal has the expectation of receiving two batches, on 9 and 19 February, of approximately 200 thousand vaccines, of a total of 6.8 million doses contracted ».

340 thousand vaccinated

Marta Temido affirmed that “340 thousand inoculations have already been carried out, being 270 thousand of first doses and 70 thousand of second doses”.

Health professionals from the National Health Service and from the social and private sectors, professionals and residents in residential structures for the elderly, for people with disabilities and the national network of integrated continuous care, and dialysis centers were inoculated.

Vaccination in care homes

“Vaccination of the first dose is completed in homes and the like, except in those where there are active outbreaks. For this week, the plan includes vaccination in homes where the outbreaks were extinguished” she said.

At the same time, “vaccination of priority health professionals from the private and social sectors and some from the public sector will continue.”

There is also “the vaccination of people over 80 years old without comorbidities and the vaccination of people between 50 and 80 years old with one of the four comorbidities identified as being of particular risk of hospitalization or death”, “a total of 900 thousand people, who will be contacted for vaccination ‘.

The second doses will also be administered to health professionals who have already spent adequate time, as well as in homes and the like, said the Minister.

Convocation process

The President of the Shared Services of the Ministry of Health, Luís Goes Pinheiro, presented the way people will be summoned for vaccination, stressing that this “is a new and complex process, which is being tested”, starting with the first inoculations by this via on the 3rd.

The main means will be the call for an SMS with information that you are scheduled to be vaccinated on such a day, at so many hours, in such part, asking that the answer is yes or no.

If the person answers no or does not answer within the given time, a new SMS will be sent with a new date proposal. If the answer is no or there is no answer to the second message, it will be treated as a rejection.

This user will be transferred to the health department, who will either repeat the sending of sms or contact her in another way, the last possibility being the sending of a letter.

On the eve of the scheduled day, the user will receive a new SMS reminding him, to reduce absenteeism.

If there is an unfolding of the vaccination for places other than the health units, another SMS will be sent with the address.

The second dose will be scheduled when taking the first, and a solution is being developed that allows immediate scheduling, but later communication to the user.

The Minister of Health also referred to the episodes of disrespect for the vaccination plan, condemning these cases and stressing that “this is a process of collective interest that cannot suffer weaknesses”.